naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I don't think IDF's less-than-stellar first response says anything about their strategic capabilities, and the nukes are without doubt functional, so no, I don't imagine even a more radical Egyptian regime throwing in their lot with Palestinians (in a sufficiently open way to matter).
I don't think IDF's less-than-stellar first response says anything about their strategic capabilities
It says something about a decline in intelligence capabilities. Not sure whether that's in the hands of Mossad or IDF or whatever, but it's a sad decline from "can find and exfiltrate Eichmann out of a decade of hiding ten thousand miles away" to "can't notice thousands of missiles and mobilized raiders prepping an attack 2 miles from your border, timed for the 50th anniversary of another surprise attack".
I'd agree that doesn't necessarily say there's been a similar decline in warfighting capabilities, though. Except ...
the nukes are without doubt functional
Can I press X to doubt? High explosives generally degrade within several years, so you need constant stockpile maintenance, and it's been four or five decades since an Israeli nuclear test, assuming everyone's suspicions are correct on that score. I wouldn't even bet on 0% of US warheads being duds if they were fired right now. Although I certainly wouldn't want to be one of the Philistines who tests their Samson Option, I could easily imagine some zealot talking themselves into believing that it's not really a danger. The US carrier group sitting off their coasts is a much less hypothetical threat; I don't know what Hamas was thinking by attacking civilian targets with Americans among them.
Any large number of Israeli civilian casualties will include a substantial number of American citizens because of Olim demographics (some estimates are that 1.5% of Israel is American, and they make up 6% of new immigrants as of 2022).
Can I press X to doubt? High explosives generally degrade within several years, so you need constant stockpile maintenance, and it's been four or five decades since an Israeli nuclear test, assuming everyone's suspicions are correct on that score. I wouldn't even bet on 0% of US warheads being duds if they were fired right now.
It's your keyboard, hit whatever you like.
That being said, I would rather hit cancel, because if you think Israel lacks the state capacity or competence to keep one of its strongest strategic deterrents alive, then I strongly ask you reconsider. They're no Russia, and even they likely have plenty of working nukes, no matter what NAFO claims about the condition of their silos.
The Israelis don't test theirs for the same reason pretty much nobody who isn't starting from scratch does, there's little purpose. Simulations are sufficient, as is checking that the mechanisms work, especially after you have a practical confirmation.
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Notes -
I don't think IDF's less-than-stellar first response says anything about their strategic capabilities, and the nukes are without doubt functional, so no, I don't imagine even a more radical Egyptian regime throwing in their lot with Palestinians (in a sufficiently open way to matter).
It says something about a decline in intelligence capabilities. Not sure whether that's in the hands of Mossad or IDF or whatever, but it's a sad decline from "can find and exfiltrate Eichmann out of a decade of hiding ten thousand miles away" to "can't notice thousands of missiles and mobilized raiders prepping an attack 2 miles from your border, timed for the 50th anniversary of another surprise attack".
I'd agree that doesn't necessarily say there's been a similar decline in warfighting capabilities, though. Except ...
Can I press X to doubt? High explosives generally degrade within several years, so you need constant stockpile maintenance, and it's been four or five decades since an Israeli nuclear test, assuming everyone's suspicions are correct on that score. I wouldn't even bet on 0% of US warheads being duds if they were fired right now. Although I certainly wouldn't want to be one of the Philistines who tests their Samson Option, I could easily imagine some zealot talking themselves into believing that it's not really a danger. The US carrier group sitting off their coasts is a much less hypothetical threat; I don't know what Hamas was thinking by attacking civilian targets with Americans among them.
Any large number of Israeli civilian casualties will include a substantial number of American citizens because of Olim demographics (some estimates are that 1.5% of Israel is American, and they make up 6% of new immigrants as of 2022).
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It's your keyboard, hit whatever you like.
That being said, I would rather hit cancel, because if you think Israel lacks the state capacity or competence to keep one of its strongest strategic deterrents alive, then I strongly ask you reconsider. They're no Russia, and even they likely have plenty of working nukes, no matter what NAFO claims about the condition of their silos.
The Israelis don't test theirs for the same reason pretty much nobody who isn't starting from scratch does, there's little purpose. Simulations are sufficient, as is checking that the mechanisms work, especially after you have a practical confirmation.
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That would presumably certainly demonstrate what the actual value of a nuke in a war would be.
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