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Transnational Thursdays 20

Happy 20 TTs guys.

I’ll be trying something new with this one and changing the format so the top level post only contains an explanation of the thread, like we do with Wellness Wednesdays and Fun Fridays. The country-specific coverage will be placed in separate comments where people can respond to them directly, or start their own threads as separate comments. This is part of my hope that long term this will become more of a permanent thread that sustains beyond me, because I likely won’t be around long term. In the short term as well, I’ve been trying to produce a lot of the user content but there will be weeks where I'm too busy, and it would be nice to have a stickied thread where people who want to can still chat foreign policy without me.

So:

This is a weekly thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or IR history. I usually start off with coverage of some current events from a mix of countries I follow personally and countries I think the forum might be interested in. In the past I've noticed good results from covering countries that users here live in, and having them chime in with more comprehensive responses. In that spirit I'll probably try to offer more snippets of western news (but you'll still get a lot of the global south). I don't follow present day European politics all that much so you'll have to fill in the blanks for me.

But also, no need to use the prompts here, feel free to talk about completely unmentioned countries, or skip country coverage entirely and chat about ongoing dynamics like wars or trade deals. You can even skip the present day and talk about IR history, or just whatever you’re reading at the moment - consider it very free form and open to everyone.

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The Democratic Republic of the Congo

The DRC will be having elections this December. In August Current President Felix Tshisekedi (say that five times fast) declared he will be running again. His rule thus far has been a rough one, as the DRC has dealt with economic downturn and constant conflict with the Rwanda-supported M23 movement in the country’s east (and a whole bunch of smaller rebel groups to boot). Given this pretty dismal first term there was some uncertainty over whether his supporters, the “Sacred Union” would rally around him, but as of Monday his coalition has has announced they will support his bid.

Former Exxon Mobile Exec Martin Fayulu, Tshisekedi’s opponent from the 2018 election, has announced he will run again as well following rumors that he would boycott the election (the last one was credibly stolen). A popular Nobel Laureate and anti-sexual violence advocate named Dr. Denis Mukwege has just announced he is running. He has widespread name recognition but no party support as of yet so it’s hard to say if he has any viability. Other smaller name competitors include: “Moise Katumbi, the former governor of Congo’s richest province; and Augustin Matata Ponyo, a former prime minister.”

Human Rights Watch has already raised the alarm about the government arresting opposition party leaders and banning their demonstrations, so this may be a dicey one. Tshisekedi’s own ascension was the DRC’s first ever peaceful transfer of power (and quite a few people still argue his election was fraudulent), since he took the spot from Joseph Kabila, who inherited it after his father Laurent was killed, who inherited it after Mobutu was toppled in the first Congo War, who himself took power following a coup against Lumumba. Needless to say, if the DRC is to build a future as a country with a stable political regime, the outcome of the election will be very relevant. Both the West and China will be keeping a close eye due to the DRC being such a critical source of cobalt and other minerals.