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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   29602 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 2, 2023

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Oh, I'm not trying to change your mind. You didn't come to your opinion by data, so data won't dissuade you from it. I'm just helpfully pointing out that you're wrong, for the benefit of other readers.

And yes, 0.28% of GDP is not nothing, and if you add that to the aid and other benefits it adds up to something real... but it's not the difference between existence and nonexistence.

Oh, I'm not trying to change your mind. You didn't come to your opinion by data, so data won't dissuade you from it.

Actually, I came to my opinion through reading an essay discussing the historical parallels between Israel and Outremer. Data played a part in that but not exclusively so - and I'll provide a quote from the essay that had the single greatest impact on my opinion on this topic.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-11-21/in-the-twilight-of-empires/

To begin with, Israel, as Outremer did in its time, depends for its survival on very large subsidies from the major Western powers. In the case of Israel, those mostly come from the United States. The US government spends many billions of dollars a year on direct and indirect aid to Israel, while America’s large and relatively wealthy Jewish community—which comprises the largest number of Jews in any single nation on Earth—engages in a great deal of fundraising for Israel on its own behalf. Many synagogues and other Jewish community instititions in America serve just as effectively to channel resources to Israel as, say, the European properties and chapter houses of the Knights Templar and Knights Hospitaller did to keep wealth and weapons flowing to the kingdoms of Outremer. Without that aid, governmental and private, the large and well-equipped Israeli military would be far too great a burden on the economy of what is, after all, a very small and resource-poor country, and the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically to Israel’s disadvantage.

Equally, the continued fragmentation of the Middle East is a crucial factor in Israel’s survival. The last two centuries or so have seen the long rhythm of Middle Eastern history enter a diastole period, splintering the once-powerful Ottoman Empire into more than two dozen small, quarrelsome, and vulnerable nations that were generally unable to counter incursions from Europe and America. To a real extent, the current condition of the Middle East is one of waiting for the next Saladin, with Iran, Turkey, or a future Islamic Republic of Arabia likely contenders for the center around which the next Middle Eastern superstate will coalesce. Of course it’s a core principle of Israeli diplomacy and military strategy to prevent the emergence of a single center of power capable of mobilizing any large fraction of the resources of the Arab world; still, it bears remembering that this was an equally central principle of the strategy of Outremer, and the Crusaders’ efforts in this direction eventually failed.

I don’t propose to pass judgment on the current state of Israeli politics and culture, even to the extent of deciding whether current trends toward political factionalism and the support of Orthodox communities at state expense do or don’t mirror the vicious political infighting of the Kingdom of Jerusalem’s final decades and the economic burden of Christian monasteries and nunneries that played so large a role in weakening Outremer. The crucial point just now, it seems to me, is Israel’s dependence on a constant inflow of funds from the United States. If that goes away, the military balance of power shifts irrevocably, and so does the Israeli government’s capacity to afford the unproductive but politically necessary payoffs that maintain such social cohesion as there is; these shifts, in turn, promise an outcome as unwelcome to Israel, at least as currently constituted, as the equivalent was to Outremer.

I haven't seen you post anything which comes remotely close to dealing with the issues laid out here. How, exactly, will Israel pay for their military AND support the vast communities of Orthodox jews who do no real work without the help of the jewish diaspora and the American MIC? Where will the shortfall in resources come from when Israel is cut off from the US teat? You can just post that data for the sake of others, but you haven't even bothered dealing with the objections I posted! What sort of impression are you going to give to others when your response to a difficult question is to just ignore it and assume the reader will be on your side anyway?

Israel has a GDP of about half a trillion dollars. So if we're talking US aid of 3 billion, remittances of another billion, maybe another billion from other sources, that's getting us to around 1% of GDP. Let's be generous and double that.

Their GDP growth last year was 6.5%, and it averages around 4%. So entirely losing that international support theoretically might halve their growth rate. That's a kick in the teeth, but not an existential threat.

Of course if things get really dire, they can insist that the Orthodox actually work for a living. The politics don't support that outcome currently, but politics can change in response to circumstance.

Given that we're currently talking about a hypothetical situation where Israel pisses off the entire Arab world and simultaneously loses western support, how much of that remaining economic activity would be unaffected by the war and combat? I think that there's a significant portion of the Israeli economy that's dependent on foreign companies - Nvidia, Intel, etc. The software industry would be badly hurt by all this as well. This means that beyond the immediate hit of losing western support, a lot of the Israeli companies dependent upon the west and international trade would be secondary victims. Followed by the even bigger economic hit associated with having to fight a massive war with all the arab nations around them that hate them, I just don't see any realistic way for Israel to survive without western security guarantees or assistance. It isn't like they could turn to other big powers for help either - though I haven't been able to really confirm it, I've seen reports that Hamas planned this attack with Huawei phones, and if true that doesn't paint a very good picture for future Sino-Israeli relations! Throw in the civil unrest caused by conscripting the orthodox or forcing them into labour (and exactly how skilled are they going to be anyway?) and I don't think you have a recipe for a long-lasting nation. Maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree on this front, but I think that the reluctance of the Israeli government to just go and holocaust the Palestinians is a sign that at least some of the people actually in charge there agree with me.

There's a big gap between a survivable situation and a desirable situation. It is good for Israel to maintain western support, and they clearly tailor their actions at least somewhat to reduce international backlash.

As to whether they can fight a war against all their neighbours simultaneously without American assistance, well, it was a while ago but they did exactly that in 1948.

As to whether they can fight a war against all their neighbours simultaneously without American assistance, well, it was a while ago but they did exactly that in 1948.

I think that there's a big difference between 1948 and the modern day, but it isn't like we can actually find out unless Israel does commit an atrocity so terrible that they become an international pariah - which I fervently hope does not happen.

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