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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   29604 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 2, 2023

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Israel, on the other hand, has both means and motive, so I can give them points for being quite polite about things, for the most part.

Actually, I don't think they do have the means. If they actually did just go and ethnically cleanse the Gaza strip they would lose substantial amounts of the international support they require to continue to exist. Israel is only sustainable at all due to massive flows of materiel from the West, and while their consent manufacturing/influence operations are incredibly powerful, they are still ultimately subject to a public opinion which would come down extremely hard if they just started a second holocaust and wiped out the muslims.

Israel gets about $3 billion in aid from the USA per year. Their defence budget is $23 billion.

It's an exaggeration to say they can't exist without western support.

This is such a strange take. The US set up client states in Jordan and Egypt to stop them from attacking Israel. It finances half the Lebanese political factions for this purpose (and even Hezbollah!). The entire Iraq war (2-3 TRILLION dollars depending on calculation methods) realistically had no other purpose than to eliminate a regime Israel wanted gone. It still stations around 30.000 soldiers around Middle East, with realistically no other purpose than to deter anyone who might want to mess with Israel. Almost any random deal US sponsors around the world will include some small ridiculous clauses to give Israel a bit more diplomatic legitimacy. US is unable to normalize relations with Iran, even though this would make a great amount of geopolitical sense, because Israel doesn't want it.

The list can go on and on. And I am not getting into items like the French giving Israel nuclear arms technology or massive sums of blood money West Germany paid for Israel's industrialization.

The 3 billion direct military aid is absolutely nothing compared to what America and Europe actually provides to Israel.

The Iraq War was because American intelligence thought there really were WMDs and because Saddam had previously lied about them and aroused America's displeasure.

That 3 billion is far from the only support that Israel gets from the west. They benefit from the military activities of the USA, the countless remittances to Israel and Israeli support initiatives run by Israeli partisans in other societies around the world. Significant investments and factories were built there not because it made good economic sense for the companies involved, but because the people in those companies wanted to support Israel. Even in my country, I can't go shopping at a major shopping mall without having some portion of the money I spend go to Israel, because the owner of the company is (or was, I haven't checked in a while) a zealous supporter of Israel and the IDF.

I don't believe you're thinking seriously about the issue at all if you think that $3 billion figure is the be-all and end-all of Western support for Israel.

countless remittances

0.28% of Israeli GDP.

"Countless" is a fun word, you can use it to make a number sound like it's really big when actually you just haven't bothered counting.

Yes, you've pointed out that one of the sources of western contribution to Israeli welfare isn't that large a portion of their GDP. I didn't really expect remittances to be much more than that - I said countless because those remittances would usually consist of large numbers of smaller payments. Furthermore, look at the definition that your source is using - this only counts money being sent back by Israelis who migrate to other countries. A jewish individual raised in France who sent money to pro-Jewish charity organisations would not show up on this chart according to the methodology listed there - but even if not, that doesn't really hurt my argument. 0.28% of GDP might not sound like much, but that stuff adds up over the years, and consistent financial support like that can make a big difference over time... to say nothing of all the other factors I named and which weren't refuted.

If that's the extent of your argument against my position I must confess that my mind has not been changed.

Oh, I'm not trying to change your mind. You didn't come to your opinion by data, so data won't dissuade you from it. I'm just helpfully pointing out that you're wrong, for the benefit of other readers.

And yes, 0.28% of GDP is not nothing, and if you add that to the aid and other benefits it adds up to something real... but it's not the difference between existence and nonexistence.

Oh, I'm not trying to change your mind. You didn't come to your opinion by data, so data won't dissuade you from it.

Actually, I came to my opinion through reading an essay discussing the historical parallels between Israel and Outremer. Data played a part in that but not exclusively so - and I'll provide a quote from the essay that had the single greatest impact on my opinion on this topic.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-11-21/in-the-twilight-of-empires/

To begin with, Israel, as Outremer did in its time, depends for its survival on very large subsidies from the major Western powers. In the case of Israel, those mostly come from the United States. The US government spends many billions of dollars a year on direct and indirect aid to Israel, while America’s large and relatively wealthy Jewish community—which comprises the largest number of Jews in any single nation on Earth—engages in a great deal of fundraising for Israel on its own behalf. Many synagogues and other Jewish community instititions in America serve just as effectively to channel resources to Israel as, say, the European properties and chapter houses of the Knights Templar and Knights Hospitaller did to keep wealth and weapons flowing to the kingdoms of Outremer. Without that aid, governmental and private, the large and well-equipped Israeli military would be far too great a burden on the economy of what is, after all, a very small and resource-poor country, and the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically to Israel’s disadvantage.

Equally, the continued fragmentation of the Middle East is a crucial factor in Israel’s survival. The last two centuries or so have seen the long rhythm of Middle Eastern history enter a diastole period, splintering the once-powerful Ottoman Empire into more than two dozen small, quarrelsome, and vulnerable nations that were generally unable to counter incursions from Europe and America. To a real extent, the current condition of the Middle East is one of waiting for the next Saladin, with Iran, Turkey, or a future Islamic Republic of Arabia likely contenders for the center around which the next Middle Eastern superstate will coalesce. Of course it’s a core principle of Israeli diplomacy and military strategy to prevent the emergence of a single center of power capable of mobilizing any large fraction of the resources of the Arab world; still, it bears remembering that this was an equally central principle of the strategy of Outremer, and the Crusaders’ efforts in this direction eventually failed.

I don’t propose to pass judgment on the current state of Israeli politics and culture, even to the extent of deciding whether current trends toward political factionalism and the support of Orthodox communities at state expense do or don’t mirror the vicious political infighting of the Kingdom of Jerusalem’s final decades and the economic burden of Christian monasteries and nunneries that played so large a role in weakening Outremer. The crucial point just now, it seems to me, is Israel’s dependence on a constant inflow of funds from the United States. If that goes away, the military balance of power shifts irrevocably, and so does the Israeli government’s capacity to afford the unproductive but politically necessary payoffs that maintain such social cohesion as there is; these shifts, in turn, promise an outcome as unwelcome to Israel, at least as currently constituted, as the equivalent was to Outremer.

I haven't seen you post anything which comes remotely close to dealing with the issues laid out here. How, exactly, will Israel pay for their military AND support the vast communities of Orthodox jews who do no real work without the help of the jewish diaspora and the American MIC? Where will the shortfall in resources come from when Israel is cut off from the US teat? You can just post that data for the sake of others, but you haven't even bothered dealing with the objections I posted! What sort of impression are you going to give to others when your response to a difficult question is to just ignore it and assume the reader will be on your side anyway?

Israel has a GDP of about half a trillion dollars. So if we're talking US aid of 3 billion, remittances of another billion, maybe another billion from other sources, that's getting us to around 1% of GDP. Let's be generous and double that.

Their GDP growth last year was 6.5%, and it averages around 4%. So entirely losing that international support theoretically might halve their growth rate. That's a kick in the teeth, but not an existential threat.

Of course if things get really dire, they can insist that the Orthodox actually work for a living. The politics don't support that outcome currently, but politics can change in response to circumstance.

Given that we're currently talking about a hypothetical situation where Israel pisses off the entire Arab world and simultaneously loses western support, how much of that remaining economic activity would be unaffected by the war and combat? I think that there's a significant portion of the Israeli economy that's dependent on foreign companies - Nvidia, Intel, etc. The software industry would be badly hurt by all this as well. This means that beyond the immediate hit of losing western support, a lot of the Israeli companies dependent upon the west and international trade would be secondary victims. Followed by the even bigger economic hit associated with having to fight a massive war with all the arab nations around them that hate them, I just don't see any realistic way for Israel to survive without western security guarantees or assistance. It isn't like they could turn to other big powers for help either - though I haven't been able to really confirm it, I've seen reports that Hamas planned this attack with Huawei phones, and if true that doesn't paint a very good picture for future Sino-Israeli relations! Throw in the civil unrest caused by conscripting the orthodox or forcing them into labour (and exactly how skilled are they going to be anyway?) and I don't think you have a recipe for a long-lasting nation. Maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree on this front, but I think that the reluctance of the Israeli government to just go and holocaust the Palestinians is a sign that at least some of the people actually in charge there agree with me.

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