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Notes -
UK news front pages for today.
In general, Arab violence toward Israel since 9/11 inevitably codes to Westerners’ experiences of Islamist terrorism (or, in parts of Europe, migrant crime waves by Muslim young men) in their own countries. Residual sympathy with Palestinians (which people forget was strong enough in the 70s, 80s and 90s for many mainstream European politicians to openly defend or at least carry water for PLO etc terrorism) is evaporating.
Even in the Muslim world, refugee crises and the intensification of the Sunni-Shia conflict have changed political realities. Many Turks, particularly hardcore nationalists, are now more anti-Arab and anti-Palestinian than ever. The old adage that the Arab world could never allow maximum brutality towards the Palestinians because their own people would revolt seems to be weakening, the Saudis are fighting a brutal war in Yemen that requires similarly cruel methods and in which they may (depending on who you believe) be extensively supported by Israel.
It likely won’t be this month or this year, but the conditions are slowly emerging for Israel to be able to take much harsher action with relative impunity.
You are forgetting that the neocon wars are the major source of migrants and muslim immigration to Europe. Israel has been pressing migrants into Europe. Palestinians want arabs to stay in their homeland, Israel wants millions of them to become refugees. The nationalist right in Europe has been pro stable states in the middle east. The less people want islamic terrorism the less they will support neocon policies that swamp Europe with migrants.
Meanwhile there is a growing muslim population that is completely pro Palestine and young people in the west no longer see Israel as victims. Israel is not at all popular in Europe and there is little pointing to increasing support.
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You are ignoring the counter-forces in action such as the rapidly diminishing power of Jewish organizations in the West and their willingness to support Israel, and the post-modern Marxist inspired ideological upheaval in Western politics which has the potential to take a very anti-Israel turn. It is perhaps the last remaining Western colonial state. White South Africans were a lot less extreme in their oppression and they were still forced to give up their colony.
Also small bit regarding your observation of pro-Israel young Turks. It is real but it is mainly an extremely-online person phenomenon. Organized secular opposition is and has always been strongly pro-Palestinian[1] and made statements to such effect yesterday as well. Indeed, now there is a strange situation with Erdogan being the only major political actor who stuck to a "both sides do bad" type of statement instead.
[1] The leadership of the opposition in 2018 https://www.aa.com.tr/uploads/userFiles/79121245-49cb-4f77-bd45-d9d308a833b3/09_2018%2F09_mayis%2F04%2F20180515_2_30378555_33752608.jpg
/images/16967568391366947.webp
How are you defining colonial state?
Something like: A state founded by a group of colonizers who moved en masse to an alien area and implemented their political rule with little to no regard for the local population. Of course by this definition there would be a lot of colonial states but I believe Israel is unique today in the sense that the colonizer population created almost zero ties with the locals (unlike the Spanish/Portuguese colonies) but also didn't achieve absolute population majority (like most Anglo colonies)
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