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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   29600 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 2, 2023

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What makes you say that? The numbers I looked at suggest those tax changes would go a very far way towards addressing funding shortfalls.

Do those numbers take into account continued declines in fertility? Do they take into account Fed policy decisions in line with the last 20 years of Fed policy decisions? What assumptions did they make about T-Bill returns or inflation?

I just can't be brought to trust the numbers anymore. Estimates in advocacy for policy changes always make optimistic assumptions to make the numbers work. Although perhaps I did come on too strong saying "none of it will matter". It might buy us a few more years, and I'm sure some politicians will pat themselves on the back for yet another non-solution.

Do those numbers take into account continued declines in fertility?

Social Security makes projections 75 years into the future and does take declining fertility into account:

The costs of both programs will grow faster than GDP through the mid-2030s primarily due to the rapid aging of the U.S. population, and generally continue to increase thereafter at a slower rate through 2076. This is because the number of beneficiaries rises rapidly as baby boomers retire and also because the persistently lower birth rates since the baby boom cause slower growth of employment and GDP.

Re:

What assumptions did they make about T-Bill returns or inflation?

The return on investment in the trust funds has been consistently about 10% total and 6% for OASI. Social Security payouts have a COLA increase based on inflation each year, and can sometimes adjust upward month to month based on the CPI. This is all factored into their budget & projections.

I'm sure some politicians will pat themselves on the back for yet another non-solution.

I mean it may be imperfect but raising taxes is more of a solution than hoping we have more kids.

I mean it may be imperfect but raising taxes is more of a solution than hoping we have more kids.

They're somewhat in opposition, insofar as raising taxes in the ways you suggest would transfer resources from the fertile population to the infertile population. Imagine raising social security contributions, but transferring the extra income to people under the retirement age who are medically certified as infertile. Of course, it's hard to say how much of an effect such transfers would have on the birth rate, but presumably they would be negative.

Fair counterpoint. OTOH, raising retirement ages probably also has some effect on the job market & wages as well, in terms of decreasing potential promotion opportunities. No idea how large that would be either and I assume in reality we'll do a mix of everything, maybe raise taxes slightly plus raise retirement ages and reduce benefits.

Yes. My preference in such cases is usually for reducing benefits (either in each case or through means-testing) but I appreciate that it's not usually a sufficient solution.

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