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Notes -
You present a cogent argument for narrowly interpreting 2A. For this to make sense though, you have to interpret "the right of the people" in 2A to really mean "the right of the States" and that's when you run into big problems. If you read the rest of the Constitution and the Bill of rights, there's multiple references to "the people" and none of them make sense with that substitution. Consider 1A ("...or the right of the States peaceably to assemble") or 4A ("The right of the States to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures") or the neglected 10A which explicitly distinguishes States from the people. It seems odd to me to think that the Founders were willing to throw casual usage of the people all over the place, but when they wrote 2A they meant it in this very specific way and didn't bother putting an asterisk or anything.
I agree with you that any approach to interpretation which starts with the enacted text has to conclude that “the people” in the 2A creates an individual right enforceable against the Feds. The question is whether the non-enforceability of the 1789 2A against the States is about the nature and purpose of the right (in which case it still isn’t enforceable against the States) or about the nature of the remedy at the time of the founding (in line with other rights, enforcement of the RKBA against States was supposed to be based on the RKBA clauses in State constitutions, adjudicated in State courts). In the latter case, it becomes enforceable against the States as a result of the 14A.
The other way of thinking about it is about the various founding-era state legislatures who ratified the 2A at the same time they were passing laws against free blacks owning guns. Were they blithely passing legislation that violated their own understanding of the RKBA because they were unprincipled racists, or were they regulating their own militias in an obnoxiously racist way based on a sincere view of the powers they actually held? AFAIK none of the other founding-era laws restricting the rights of free blacks were obviously inconsistent with the Bill of Rights as the gun laws were under the modern Red Tribe understanding of the RKBA.
Seems like you should probably look to Scott v Sandford for some contextual clarity for the time about laws restricting rights as applied to people who may not have been considered entitled to them. The actual decision is in the national archives and should be read not summaries or opinion pieces.
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