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ymeskhout  1yr ago (text post)   3219 thread views

The Bailey Podcast E034: An Unhinged Conversation on Policing

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In this episode, an authoritarian and some anarchist(s) have an unhinged conversation about policing.

Participants: Yassine, Kulak, & Hoffmeister25 [Note: the latter's voice has been modified to protect him from the progressive nanny state's enforcement agents.]

Links:

About the Daniel Penny Situation (Hoffmeister25)

Posse comitatus (Wikipedia)

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison (BJS 1997)

The Iron Rule (Anarchonomicon)

Eleven Magic Words (Yassine Meskhout)

Blackstone's ratio (Wikipedia)

Halfway To Prison Abolition (Yassine Meskhout)

Defunding My Mistake (Yassine Meskhout)

Recorded 2023-09-16 | Uploaded 2023-09-25

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I thought that the general consensus was that the harsh policies adopted in the 80's and 90's were a major factor in the plunging murder rate in the U.S.

I'll note that this is a study area with a lot of motivated actors but the other leading explanations I'm aware of are reduction in leaded gasoline and greater access to abortion. I think there's decent evidence to attribute the plunge to the tough-on-crime policies, but overall I don't have enough info to form an opinion.

The most recent meta-analysis I've seen on lead-crime was this, which as I read it suggests that lead likely was responsible for somewhere between zero and one third - closer to zero in the most rigorous studies - of the crime surge.

Anthony Higney, Nick Hanley, and Mirko Moro, “The Lead-Crime Hypothesis: A MetaAnalysis,” University of Glasgow Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, Discussion Papers in Environmental and One Health Economics series, no. 2021–02, Feb. 21, 2021.

And as for the abortion explanation, my understanding was that the Freaknomics guy's study was pretty convincingly critiqued here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=270126

YMMV, of course.

Thanks, this shifts my belief towards accepting "tough on crime" as the more likely explanation.

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