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The Bailey Podcast E034: An Unhinged Conversation on Policing

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In this episode, an authoritarian and some anarchist(s) have an unhinged conversation about policing.

Participants: Yassine, Kulak, & Hoffmeister25 [Note: the latter's voice has been modified to protect him from the progressive nanny state's enforcement agents.]

Links:

About the Daniel Penny Situation (Hoffmeister25)

Posse comitatus (Wikipedia)

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison (BJS 1997)

The Iron Rule (Anarchonomicon)

Eleven Magic Words (Yassine Meskhout)

Blackstone's ratio (Wikipedia)

Halfway To Prison Abolition (Yassine Meskhout)

Defunding My Mistake (Yassine Meskhout)


Recorded 2023-09-16 | Uploaded 2023-09-25

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If not stealing, then how else are they making money?

Ah, this might be a relevant policy difference. The answer here is "Centrelink".

US unemployment benefits are temporary, and thus unavailable to the chronically jobless. Our system is kind of cumbersome and annoying, but does allow the perpetually unemployed to get free money for life. Not a lot of money mind you, but enough that you can afford some drugs if you choose to forgo normal expenses like rent.

I also feel like shoplifting for resale is just not done here? I don't know if that's a misperception on my part, but my impression is that pretty much all the shoplifting that occurs here is people taking things that they use themselves, rather than selling it for drug money.

Obviously drug-fueled crimes occur - I knew a former addict who went around door knocking for donations pretending to be working for the Red Cross - and probably some portion of addicts steal food so they can spend their dole on drugs. But overall it seems to be kept to an acceptably low level.

I also feel like shoplifting for resale is just not done here?

That might be an unstable equilibrium, though.

Thanks, that's really useful context. So Centrelink acts like a UBI of sorts? The closest the US has is what's referred to as "Social Security Disability Insurance" which also acts like a UBI by giving about $700 in cash a month (TLP wrote about this) plus food stamps which is about $200/month. I've heard from multiple addicts in the US that their opioid habit costs about $100 a day, a figure I still find absolutely unbelievable but I found a national survey that corroborated a range of $60-$100/day. That requires a lot of shoplifting to fund. In my case load, I don't think I've ever encountered a client who was stealing items for their direct needs. The typical scenario is stealing things either to attempt a return fraud ("I lost the receipt") or selling it on craigslist or OfferUp (power tools are not suspicious and sell very quickly).

I imagine there's going to be some variation among countries regarding how expensive the drugs are, how much government money addicts get, and how lucrative the "shadow trades" are.

So Centrelink acts like a UBI of sorts?

The big difference is that it diminishes pretty sharply as you start earning your own income. This has some perverse outcomes - e.g. I know part time workers on very low incomes who have turned down more work because the resulting loss of centrelink money + higher tax would basically wipe out their increased income. But it makes it sustainable. And of course there are conditions attached, like you need to apply for a certain number of jobs per week. But there's no rule that your applications need to be any good or take more than the barest modicum of effort. If you stay on it for long enough they make you sit through an online job-finding-advice-course saying things like "Hey, have you considered showering before job interviews?" And of course the money is not great - it's about $375/week (which converts to $240 US).

I'm also not sure of the extent to which the popularity of different drugs matters. The most common drug here (other than pot, which will probably end up getting decriminalised at some point) is meth, which I'm given to understand is substantially cheaper than opioids.

It's quite interesting that you report clients basically never steal for personal use. I did some googling to see if my anecdotal impressions of the situation here were right and found this paper which reports the uses of stolen goods by Australian thieves (figure 2). It confirms my impression that it's overwhelmingly for personal use, with "swap for drugs" coming a distant second, and selling them coming third.

That's a very interesting paper, thanks for linking it. It's an admirable effort though I remain skeptical at their methodology because the source of their information is social workers asking police detainees. I'd imagine that there would be an intense social desirability bias to claim you're just stealing food for personal use rather than say you steal electronics to buy drugs. At the same time, I can't account for why the trends would change (since presumably social desirability bias would be constant).

Here's another data point for you, from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics. They report (table 2) that alcohol is by far the most commonly stolen item, followed by clothing and footwear. More high-value resellable items like personal electronics come 5th and tools and suchlike are way down. This confirms what I've heard from friends and family who have worked in retail that the biggest shoplifting problem is obvious alcoholics swiping booze.

I also found this interesting:

In the year to June 2023, almost half of all reported retail thefts resulted in legal proceedings within 90 days.

I have no idea what the comparable statistic would be in an American jurisdiction, but I'm willing to bet it would be way way lower.