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Notes -
The issue is not "is the judge's valuation correct?" (In part because the judge did not make a factual finding; that does not happen on a motion for summary judgment) It is whether the judge's finding that the undisputed facts show that the value claimed by Trump was higher than the actual value is so unreasonable that it can only be the product of corruption or stupidity.
And, the problem with your discussion of the amount the Mar A Lago "should" have appreciated, is that, as the court emphasizes, subsequent to Trump's purchase, substantial land use limitations were attached to Mar A Lago. Which obviously is going to reduce the value of the property. Note also that the decision says that from 2011 to 2021, the assessed value of the property ranged between $18 million and $27 million, which is indeed substantially more than inflation (the BLS inflation calculator tells me that $18 million in Jan of 2011 was equivalent to just under $23 million in Dec of 2021)
Edit: Note also that Trump's attorneys were free to submit evidence that the County's assessment was inaccurate. Did they? There is no evidence that they did.
And while 500 Regents Park Rd might be listed at $40 million, Zillow tells me that it sold in March of 2020 for $7.5 million, compared to its assessed value of at the time of $3.2 million. And that is the relevant time period: The time when Trump et al filed documents claiming what Mar A Lago was worth (again, the decision says that the time period in question was 2011-2021).
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