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This is just ridiculous. No one knows what a the threshold is because nuclear weapons have only been used twice. But of course that’s the problem when dealing with extreme tail risk. You can’t really rely on history and getting it wrong is terrible. You seem to believe there is a knowable threshold and we need to just figure out what it is. My point is we have zero clue what the threshold is and therefore caution is prudent with respect to Ukraine. You keep saying I’m not responding to your argument but that’s because your argument is absurd — you are asking for me to prove what a threshold is BUT I’m saying that’s the completely wrong question to ask. We have a known unknown and need to make decisions in that context. Sure escalating may not result in nuclear war but it may. It isn’t handwaving to say “we don’t know;” it is the entire argument.
You don’t seem to get that. Instead you seemingly claim “we can look to the Cold War and the current situation of the war to ascertain what the threshold is.” But the problem is pretty much all of your analogs are so easily distinguished as to be beyond the point. That is, we are in sui generis situation meaning we are in known unknown land.
Still avoiding the arguments, I see. No surprise.
Projection.
Indeed you are. It was kind of a point you skipped.
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