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Except the person I was responding to literally used the word "shaming" as well. We don't typically speak of "shaming" in a positive light, especially not here. That's what I'm pushing back on.
Regardless, that person also said that Russia was just destined to win in the end due to material advantages. I reject that idea entirely, and it can be rendered false even further by Zelensky doing what he's doing.
There are quite a few people on this site who seem to have heard "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics" or some variant of that and concluded that since Russia has BIG NUMBERS that it's going to win. A lot more goes into winning a war than one's military hardware count.
Who cares?
It doesn't matter if we speak of shaming in a positive light or not on here. What matters is if he was actually trying to shame countries into supporting him, and my reading of his actions and words (especially if you include the comments he's been making before this current tour) absolutely support that claim. You can say that it isn't a problem that he's trying to shame people into supporting him, and given his circumstances I'm not even going to say that it makes him a bad person - hell, if I was in his position, I would be busting out as much shaming as I possibly could if I thought it'd get me more tanks.
What ultimately matters here is that he is out begging for materiel and openly stating that they will lose the war if the flow of treasure (and presumably blood, albeit surreptitiously) doesn't get ramped up. That's not something you go out and say if you're winning!
I agree! That said, I believe we're on opposite sides in this particular disagreement, because I do believe that Russia will ultimately emerge "victorious" (I use the quotation marks here because I think Russia's best outcome would have been for no war to take place at all) - just not for the sophomoric reasons that you've outlined. If you're interested in learning more about my perspective and getting a more elaborate understanding of the thinking of the people you disagree with, I highly recommend this article https://www.ecosophia.net/notes-on-stormtrooper-syndrome/
Okay, fine. Material limits would prevent Ukraine from winning with what it already has.
That may have been more reasonable in Feb 22, it's much less so now. Russia's military performance has greatly lacked in comparison to what it was thought to be and the Ukrainians have demonstrated they can fight and even reverse the gains Russia has been making. Russia's efforts at building more stuff are not going to drastically take off in the near future, they're relying on reactivating older stuff for the time being.
Linked article is completely irrelevant due to the previous point.
Edit: Ignoring the cultural and political analysis in that article, it just doesn't fit what we know about Russia's military production and the difficulty of Ukraine's counter-offensive. These things take time and Russia doesn't have my confidence in its ability to get things going at the rate it needs.
Did you check the date on when that article was written? That post didn't come from Feb 22.
I'm sorry, but a totally evidence free assertion like this isn't going to actually convince me. That article laid out a fairly clear and well explained argument as to what's going on in Ukraine, one that deserves more than "it is irrelevant because I think it is wrong". I've seen multiple news stories talking about ammunition and military supply-chain issues on the west, and the same claim you're making (Russia is going to run out of ammo/have serious supply difficulties) has been made repeatedly over the course of the entire conflict and has been wrong every single time a definitive date was given.
I'm entirely amenable to changing my mind - if you can summon up some good statistics showing that Western supply chains are capable of providing ammunition and materiel to Ukraine at a rate that can exceed what Russia and their allies are putting out I will absolutely change my mind (though with the obvious proviso that the statistics are good and the argument sound). From where I'm standing now, it really does seem like Russia has a better manufacturing supply chain for the kind of munitions that are being used in this conflict.
I'm not talking about the article, I'm talking about your assertion that Russia will win. That was expected when the invasion began because Western analysts didn't have a clear way of judging Russian military capability. Playing it cautiously, they overestimated the Russians.
When the article is more interested in being going "ackshually, morality doesn't determine victory!" and talking about how this is a "NATO" war and about NATO involvement in the Maidan revolution, it should be treated with far less credibility.
Regardless, I refer you to Perun, who is an member of the Australian defense industry and has been covering the various issues regarding this war and military production and logistics for a while. The linked video goes over this exact topic. He doesn't give any kind of specific date, he only notes that Russia is currently and for the near-future not in a position to simply build its way through this war. He even explicitly argues that Western military production can support Ukraine and help them win, but it's a question of political will, not industrial capacity.
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