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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   30073 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 21, 2023

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I do not believe there is anything like that, not anything that can do real damage at least. Putin just killed him, in the same manner he probably killed General Lebed decades ago, to feel more secure about the upcoming elections, exactly 2 months after the beginning of the coup – the old KGB rat likes these stupid calendar jokes (Nemtsov was famously killed on Special Operations Forces Day). Prigozhin had no leverage since it became clear that the army isn't joining in on the mutiny (partially Surovikin's call, for which he's been rewarded in the usual manner Kremlin rewards loyalty), and was banking essentially on some combination of Putin's sentimentality, cowardice, and getting a chance to slip out before the kill order is executed. I am not aware what he was thinking he's trying to dodge when he took off in that private jet; maybe radioactive poisoning, maybe an unstoppable, anonymous Ukrainian Shinobi like the one that took down Yevhen Zhylin.

Let's look back on my unconfident «analysis», so to speak. 23rd June

Prigozhin is straightforwardly a warlord (with vague Imperial sympathies) who's trying to avoid getting deep-fried like early LDNR leaders who were deemed a threat by Kremlin. This kill-your-military-heroes pattern is a staple of the Russian state and its dickless-but-psychopathic apparatchik leadership over the last century, so he has no way out but up. It very likely won't work, but it very likely heralds the final episode of our very special military operation:

26th June:

I believe we don't yet know how this will shake out. The default outcome, corroborated by the renewal of treason case against Prig, is that Putin+Luka have prevailed and shooed everyone into apparent compromise, which just means postponed execution for Prig and likely his inner circle. Maybe not – the murky current status of Wagnerites suggests there's uncertainty remaining. It was close anyway. Prig has failed in securing his maximalist terms (removal of MoD heads who directly threaten him) but has successfully demonstrated that their worthlessness is a Schelling point and the army's integrity is hanging by a thread. It's just a thicker thread than he hoped. Maybe it's thin enough for Putin to fear touching him again.
My prediction is 60% Wagner dissolving and Prigozhin being eliminated in some manner (maybe not killed but actually convicted, maybe he offs himself), 25% Prigozhin, Utkin etc. somehow weaseling out of it, brokering some deal with Luka and either just chilling in Belarus, «going missing», or escaping to… Africa?, and 15% «anything goes», because Russia is, after all, a magical place.

In this light, we can surmise that the thread got reinforced in the meantime and that's it.

I'll take the opportunity to reiterate that anyone supporting the Russian regime in any way or form advocates for an irredeemable abomination. There are only two well-informed perspectives from which such support makes sense: A) if you believe Russian genocide is inherently desirable, even at substantial cost to other peoples; and B) if you think there's an urgent need for Western mobilization against a vicious but not genuinely dangerous enemy, maybe as preparation for the war with China. If you're some galaxy-brained cynical Western right0id antiglobalist who thinks that Putin provides a «multipolar» check to the hated GAE, you're still wrong, he's ineffectual in this capacity since he prioritizes regime stability over any external power projection (he's just not competent enough to pick moves that are worthwhile on either axis) and irreversibly erodes the future possibility of such checks.

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