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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 14, 2023

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If you're sure that most people are going to pick blue, or if you think a small majority are going to pick red but your uncertainty is just wide enough to make you think you might be the tie-breaking vote, you picking blue has the higher EV!

One caveat here, this is EV of lives saved which counts your life as equal in value to a random persons life. By revealed preference of how people actually live their lives almost everyone values their own life at least an order of magnitude higher than a random persons life. Taking that into account I think red should be prefered in the majority but not all situations. Heres the graph for when red is prefered using a 10x multiplier on your own life (link isn't working but I just added a zero to your expression it goes to a small blue region in the corner and red ahead everywhere else) https://academo.org/demos/3d-surface-plotter/?expression=if(10%2F2*(1%2Berf((x-1%2F2)%2F(ysqrt(2))))-1%2F(2ysqrt(2pi))exp(-1%2F2((1%2F2-x)%2Fy)%5E2)%3E0%2C1%2C0)&xRange=0%2C1&yRange=0.01%2C1&resolution=100

Ha! I was just pulling up my own comment to reply with basically what you just said, except that I added a 20x multiplier to make it seem more selfish. The higher you make the multiplier, naturally, the lower the uncertainty you can tolerate before red becomes the preferred option.

Is this how some blue pickers are modeling red pickers? "Just like me he knows we're probably going to pick blue, so the only way his red pick makes sense if he would prefer the deaths of twenty strangers over his own one; that selfish jerk!"

All that said, I think the "trembling hand" model makes for a good reason to try to coordinate around blue. It doesn't take too high a percentage of irrational choices before you start to be tempted by the hope of saving all of them.