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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   30623 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 14, 2023

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Look if you want to bring in the element of irresponsibility in a thought experiment, you have to do it explicitly, otherwise we run into these pointless discussions about an incomplete model.

What's to learn from flukes in a thought experiment?

When trying to solve the prisonner's dilemma, people don't assume the prisoners might have a rare ailment that makes them pick the opposite choice than the one they want. Because it's a model.

When trying to solve the prisonner's dilemma, people don't assume the prisoners might have a rare ailment that makes them pick the opposite choice than the one they want. Because it's a model.

Actually, people often (I would even say more often than not) do! There are both variants and strategies which deal with this. If you look up "interactive prisoner's dilemma", the first result involves many prisoners whose strategies are fundamentally irrational.

Look if you want to bring in the element of irresponsibility in a thought experiment, you have to do it explicitly, otherwise we run into these pointless discussions about an incomplete model.

I disagree. The thought experiment explicitly included everyone who responded to the poll. I think it would have to be phrased differently for us to be able to ignore those who responded on accident.

Another user did mention that those who respond to the poll are offered the choice, so technically, according to the premise, the option they choose in the poll isn't necessarily what they would actually choose in the thought experiment. Still, I think it's a given that plenty of young/stupid people will respond and that their decisions will not necessarily be rational.

Of course there are refinements that you can add to make this a better model, since in reality we do have problems that fit this. My point is that this should be included in the model otherwise we're just going to argue about what the model even is, which is exactly what is happening.

I guess it is fair enough to say that it should be included given Twitter is bound to have irrational actors. I still think the formulation is bad because it's too vague.

Maybe I'll create some kind of simulation we can all play around with. The correct answer between red and blue definitely changes depending on who you're playing with, and definitely depending on how many of the players are irrational.

When trying to solve the prisonner's dilemma, people don't assume the prisoners might have a rare ailment that makes them pick the opposite choice than the one they want. Because it's a model.

Game theory calls this rare ailment a "trembling hand". You're right that it's not the same model, but in some ways it's a much more interesting one, and there's lots to learn from it.

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