Even Yamamoto knew there was no chance at all against the US in a protracted conflict.
The whole strategy was to ensure there wouldn't be an unfavourable protracted conflict, by exploiting their temporary and diminishing military superiority to secure a Pacific perimeter and win decisive battles. That Japan lost the decisive battle at Midway does not undermine the importance of decisive battles, especially considering Japan lost the war as a direct result of that battle!
Suppose there were a counterfactual where the Japanese divebombers come out of a cloud, sink 4 carriers and win the battle. The US is fucked, that's the Pacific Fleet neutered for the time being. They can keep producing but how can they keep Pearl Harbour from being bombed to shit? What good is a carrier without bases to fuel it? What good is cycling in new and untrained crews vs veterans?
If you conclude that conflict is inevitable, logically you have to go for the dice roll rather than play passively and let the US achieve total military superiority.
The US is fucked, that's the Pacific Fleet neutered for the time being. They can keep producing but how can they keep Pearl Harbour from being bombed to shit? What good is a carrier without bases to fuel it?
The difference was so crushing that USA would win anyway, as long as they would have not surrendered.
Suppose there were a counterfactual where the Japanese divebombers come out of a cloud, sink 4 carriers and win the battle. The US is fucked, that's the Pacific Fleet neutered for the time being. They can keep producing but how can they keep Pearl Harbour from being bombed to shit? What good is a carrier without bases to fuel it? What good is cycling in new and untrained crews vs veterans?
Uh, how exactly are the Japanese going to bomb Pearl Harbor after the initial strike on December 7th? Even during the attack, American sailors were actively defending the base and the ships with AA fire once the initial surprise wore off. The increasing resistance was one of the factors that made Nagumo avoid a third strike.
It is not impossible to bomb defended targets with carrier-based aircraft. See the Doolittle raids, island-hopping, the entire Pacific War, strategic bombing in general...
The Doolittle Raid was a total surprise, the Japanese were not expecting the US to launch army bombers from carriers. Secondly, the US did very little material damage in the raid.
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Notes -
The whole strategy was to ensure there wouldn't be an unfavourable protracted conflict, by exploiting their temporary and diminishing military superiority to secure a Pacific perimeter and win decisive battles. That Japan lost the decisive battle at Midway does not undermine the importance of decisive battles, especially considering Japan lost the war as a direct result of that battle!
Suppose there were a counterfactual where the Japanese divebombers come out of a cloud, sink 4 carriers and win the battle. The US is fucked, that's the Pacific Fleet neutered for the time being. They can keep producing but how can they keep Pearl Harbour from being bombed to shit? What good is a carrier without bases to fuel it? What good is cycling in new and untrained crews vs veterans?
If you conclude that conflict is inevitable, logically you have to go for the dice roll rather than play passively and let the US achieve total military superiority.
The difference was so crushing that USA would win anyway, as long as they would have not surrendered.
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Uh, how exactly are the Japanese going to bomb Pearl Harbor after the initial strike on December 7th? Even during the attack, American sailors were actively defending the base and the ships with AA fire once the initial surprise wore off. The increasing resistance was one of the factors that made Nagumo avoid a third strike.
It is not impossible to bomb defended targets with carrier-based aircraft. See the Doolittle raids, island-hopping, the entire Pacific War, strategic bombing in general...
The Doolittle Raid was a total surprise, the Japanese were not expecting the US to launch army bombers from carriers. Secondly, the US did very little material damage in the raid.
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