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I'm really not sure why you two are arguing, but for clarity: I was indeed talking about the effectiveness of the vaccine, and I was indeed saying that I had hoped it would meaningfully reduce transmission (enough to get R below 1).
I acknowledge that it's not fair to say that the vaccines "didn't work" because they didn't meet that standard. But at the same time it is fair to say they "didn't work in the way that I had hoped" and this impacted the kinds of policies I was willing to support. E.g. I was supportive of a certain amount of coercion to get people vaxxed (although not the actual forms of coercion that were used - I wanted a $50 fine). At this point however I don't see that as justifiable, given that the externality benefits of vaccination are basically nonexistent.
That makes sense! I didn't think lockdowns or curve-flattening were particularly valuable in 2020, so the vaccine didn't ever feel like it didn't meet my expectations. I continue to think a better pandemic plan would've been immediate rapid trials on effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (masks, UV, whatever), and maybe general use of those / selective rollouts of those to the most vulnerable populations + people who interact with them, and then continue that until vaccine is available.
I don't see how the $50 fine is that different from e.g. taxes on cigarettes / unhealthy food / penalties for not wearing a seatbelt, in principle. Although taxes on cigarettes don't work that well. A vaccine fine might work better (it translate hard-to-understand small risks of significant harm to visible and predictable inconvenience). Not that I think it's a good policy, i dunno, haven't thought about it, even before considering political backlash.
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