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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   33487 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 19, 2023

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I don't appreciate the casting of my understanding of the situation as "Russian". I am not Russian nor do I live there, nor am I especially invested in their victory - though not for lack of trying, given how frequently I offer to bet that Crimea will not be retaken by Ukraine. I think that they're almost certainly going to end up the victors in the current conflict, but that's just my best understanding of the situation rather than what I want to happen (which is, for the record, peace).

As for justification, I don't think that's precisely the right word, but it does fit. I absolutely think that if you look at the situation in Ukraine in a broader historical context, going back to the Maidan and the troubles that led up to it, you can gain a much better understanding of the situation and why Putin is doing what he is doing - and having done that is why I object so strongly to sophomoric takes like the outcome of the Syrian conflict travelling backwards through time and informing Russian strategy in the past.

I don't appreciate the casting of my understanding of the situation as "Russian".

Well, it seems to follow "we must surrender to Russia" which is good for Russia and bad for everyone else.

Especially

I think that Russia's preferred outcome would have been for Ukraine to remain a neutral borderzone between them and NATO forces

was weird. It is quite clear that preferred outcome for Putin and other similar russians would be recreation of USSR or larger.

Firm security guarantee that Ukraine does not join NATO nor host NATO forces/missile systems, and an end to the attacks on the breakaway republics and Crimea. Beyond that, a rescindment of the sanctions placed upon Russia and a return of their seized assets.

Then next step would be to send totally-not-russian-army into Kherson. Or maybe meddle in Estonia.

I think that's a fair compromise and would satisfy the Russians

Russians would be happy. But I see no reason to expect that they would hold to it better than to Budapest Memorandum.

Well, it seems to follow "we must surrender to Russia" which is good for Russia and bad for everyone else.

No, this is a more general principle. If Russia was messing around in Mexico or Canada I'd come down on the side of the US - but right now it is the US empire getting involved in a nation that is immediately adjacent to Russia.

was weird. It is quite clear that preferred outcome for Putin and other similar russians would be recreation of USSR or larger.

Again, I disagree. Russian strategy right now recognises that they cannot overcome the current hegemon by themselves, which is why they're focused on strengthening their ties with China and laying the groundwork for a multipolar world. They're not interested in recreating the USSR, but the current conflict was motivated by real and serious security concerns (if you disagree, ask yourself how the US government would react if what happened in Ukraine happened in Mexico or Canada).

Then next step would be to send totally-not-russian-army into Kherson. Or maybe meddle in Estonia.

For what purpose? Russia had a very clear and definite set of reasons to go into Ukraine, and I don't see those reasons existing for Estonia. And isn't Kherson in Ukraine anyway?

Russians would be happy. But I see no reason to expect that they would hold to it better than to Budapest Memorandum.

Why would they break an agreement which you already said would make them happy?

Why would they break an agreement which you already said would make them happy?

because taking also Kherson would make them even happier

And isn't Kherson in Ukraine anyway?

You are proposing giving to Russia some Ukrainian territories but not Kherson. Kherson would be likely next target

For what purpose?

Continue empire building.

Russia had a very clear and definite set of reasons to go into Ukraine, and I don't see those reasons existing for Estonia.

Exactly the same reasons are applying (reinvasion of former USSR areas, neighbor that dislikes them and works with USA, Russian minority is present, escaped influence and control of Moscow...). There are larger reasons against (NATO!) but all arguments for are applying.

They're not interested in recreating the USSR, but the current conflict was motivated by real and serious security concerns

Moscow would claim "real and serious security concerns" against UK and Portugal if they would conquer Poland, Germany France and Spain. This type of demands never ends.

(if you disagree, ask yourself how the US government would react if what happened in Ukraine happened in Mexico or Canada).

I am not claiming that USA is not engaging in Empire building, and yes I am familiar with United Fruit Company and related adventures in central america.

Though I expect that modern USA at its worst would not engage in large scale deliberate war crimes as an official policy.

Also, from realpolitik perspective: USA has power to maintain its influence (and does not need to invade countries in Europe to achieve this). Russia is with small exceptions unable to secure influence in Europe without invading, and it turns out that their war also does not work well. So also from realpolitik perspective they are not entitled to empire in central Europe.

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