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Notes -
Wagner forces were seen entering Moscow Oblast a few hours ago. I think Pirghozin understands he has to win quickly and is rushing Moscow and betting that they can't coordinate a serious defense fast enough. I don't think either side is trying to mobilize the people to get in the streets like Erdogan did in Turkey. The public is assumed to be bystanders, the audience for communications is the other military commanders, everything will hinge on whether Pirghovin has support from any other factions of the millitary. Rosgvardia vehicles were seen with Wagner vehicles if Rostov but it's unclear if they were seized or collaborating.
I agree that the odds of the coup succeeding are small but the coup hasn't stalled yet.
The single biggest factor at this point for any defense of Moscow is likely the Moscow mayor-equivallent. Major metropolitan mayors have substantial influence over not only lower security forces, who are key enablers for the state-level agencies under government control, but the sort of agencies that provide disproportionate enabling support.
Look to see if garbage trucks and school buses are called up and used as barricades, or if the government clerks totally unremoved from fighting start filling sandbags as labor.
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