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Infinitesimally. The probability of the observation at hand being induced by any mechanism other than aliens - 8D chess psyops, crankery, attention seeking combined with amused indifference from the military - continues dwarfing the probability of it being induced by aliens.
For starters, any footage that is not conveniently just situated around the boundary of the relevant detection process's confidence range. The 'aliens' signal continues to get more elusive in a way that neatly tracks our civilisational advances in detection and analysis, and more people signalling respectability and status claiming that it's actually the real deal does little to me since their respectability and status signals seem to be geared towards a different demographic than mine.
Yeah, there's a very relevant xkcd. There are thousands of times more cameras at hand to the general public than there were 50 years ago. If 9/11 happened today we'd have hundreds of videos of the FIRST plane impact - which happened with only seconds of warning - instead of just one. Only 12 years later, there was a huge amount of footage of the Chelyabinsk meteor. Even tsunamis - a relatively more common event with more warning - hadn't really been captured on video much before Japan's in 2011.
Real phenomena, even rare ones, get easier and easier to find footage of as technology increases. "Aliens flitting around the skies in spaceships" does not fit this profile at all.
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