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Notes -
While I mostly agree with you, I think there are also tipping points that are bad -- things like the great depression, which fucked up the whole world for a decade, the oil crisis in the 70s, and the financial crisis in 2008. It does seem like we've gotten better at handling things, but part of me worries that we've been lulled into a false sense of security.
Minor related note -- I'd say only now, a good year after the initial Ukraine invasion, has the product offering in supermarkets mostly levelled out. Until recently, it seemed like there was always something out -- sunflower oil, catfood, dijon senf (that was something else), what have you. So my sense is that we are more connected, and have less resilience, so an unexpected shock can have surprising ripples.
I still tend towards optimism, but I don't think we can just rely on things working out.
We have less short term resilience but more over the medium and long term. If you have foods from 100 different countries in the supermarket, well, something is going to happen in one of those countries most every year. But then, you have 99 other countries who can step in and try to fill the gap.
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