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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   31307 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023

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On the same day.

  1. China overtakes United States on contribution to research in Nature Index.

  2. China Surpasses Japan as World’s Top Auto Exporter.

Not sure how this decoupling/containment business is going, but it sure doesn't seem to be flying with all colors. I'm not someone who buys into the de-dollarisation thesis, nor do I think the US with its allies (vassals?) is going to be displaced. But neither is China. It'd be nice if US policy would take on a more realistic bent and acknowledge these basic facts instead of pursuing futile policies doomed to failure. We might even have auxiliary benefits such as less need to spend on a bloated military as a consequence. Fat chance, I know, but hope is the last thing that leaves man.

Kamil Galeev, who once hyped China up (and studied there; now seeking career opportunities in Washington), says in his telegram channel:

On the Coming U.S.-China War:

Pamela Crossley, one of the most thorough scholars of the Qing era, quoted British intelligence reports of the First Opium War era about the garrisons of coastal Chinese forts. How many soldiers are there in the garrison?

These estimates look something like this (I quote from memory):

Fortress A: 30,000 Chinese, 1,500 "Tatars" (obviously meaning Manchu-Mongolian "banner" armies).

Fortress B: 15 000 Chinese, 500 "Tatars".

And so on.

«Banner» Tunguso-Mongolian units were a very small part of the Qing forces in South China. Nevertheless, it was the Banner contingents that the British very clearly distinguished from all the others. Because they were the only units that tried to resist at all

For example. The British fleet approaches the fortress of Zhapu (random name). Initiates bombardment. A few hours later, Marines land and go into the breaches made by the artillery. The fortress is taken, and the prisoners are taken. 30 «banner» Manchus, 0 Chinese.

It turns out that both the Manchus and the Chinese are not easy to take prisoners. But for different reasons.

The Manchus are «samurai». They stand to the end – with bows and muskets against rifles. They try not to have to surrender; if taken prisoner, they often try to commit suicide.

The Chinese are smarter and don't wait for the Marines to land. They flee at the bombardment stage.

When planning military operations, the British proceeded from the size of the «banner» contingent of the enemy, not from the size of the larger Chinese contingent. The first (small) figure was real. The second (huge) was imaginary.

Now Galeev is a Tatar supremacist, but I concur about the Chinese. PRC's contribution to the Nature Index is an indictment of the metric.

A short video with some of the context for the car part.

If you really don't like videos you can just watch the 1:26-3:46 part.

Pax Americana has been very good for the world. I'd prefer that it last a little while longer, even if the organic growth in China's economy ensures they will will far outstrip the United States in production in the near future. (Note: they already do in PPP terms).

Delaying the rise in China, futile as it may be, seems like a good policy.

It'd be nice if US policy would take on a more realistic bent and acknowledge these basic facts instead of pursuing futile policies doomed to failure.

Which policies are you referring to here?

I'm guessing The China-United States trade war though I guess it depends to what extent one thinks the new tariffs are due to keeping China down vs (e.g.) protectionism, enforcing copyright protection, etc.

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