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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   30422 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 8, 2023

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General self-defense via firearm happens, at best estimate, somewhere in the range of several hundred thousand times a year.

True, but firearms don't seem to be a uniquely effective self-defence weapon, or at least there is some tentative evidence in that direction.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515001188?via%3Dihub#s0010

I have a more prosaic objection: I don't find high-end DGU numbers believable. High-end estimates rely on self-reporting, which has two major issues. The first is that respondents could simply be lying. Self-reporting of anything is generally terrible. The second is that a sincere report does not mean an actual DGU occurred - the respondent could have imagined the threat entirely, or they could have pulled a gun to win an argument or similarly be misrepresenting what actually happened.

This is definitely true, and Hemenway has actually also done some good work on this front, but in fairness high-end DGU estimates go way higher than 'several hundred thousand'. The one I see a lot is 2.5 million which originates from a rubbish Kleck and Gertz study from the 90s.

Results from the NCVS find that guns are used by victims in less than 1% of crimes in which there is personal contact between the perpetrator and victim, and about 1% in cases of robbery and (non-sexual) assault. There were no reported cases of self-defense gun use in the more than 300 cases of sexual

...Is this not straightforward survivorship bias? A woman who presents a firearm to a would-be rapist very likely doesn't have an actual crime to report. Likewise for a host of other crimes, from muggings to assaults to murder.

More generally, every crime successfully completed is an instance where lawful self-defense would deliver a likely-superior outcome. If self-defense rates are really this low, why aren't we trying to improve them?

woman who presents a firearm to a would-be rapist very likely doesn't have an actual crime to report. Likewise for a host of other crimes, from muggings to assaults to murder.

Presumably they have an attempted rape/mugging/etc. to report to the survey?

More generally, every crime successfully completed is an instance where lawful self-defense would deliver a likely-superior outcome

Is it? Maybe I'm just too soy but if an armed mugger demanded my wallet etc. I'd rather give in than take my chances trying to defend myself, a lot of tail risk involved there, not to say that people shouldn't defend themselves though.

If self-defense rates are really this low, why aren't we trying to improve them?

Well I guess we can but the point is that increasing gun usage doesn't seem like it would actually achieve that goal.

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