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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 1, 2023

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But with ANNs, unlike Lisp scripts, it seems to require a great deal of compute, and compute doesn't just lie on the sidewalk. Yud thinks an AGI will just hack into whatever it wants, but that's a very sci-fi idea from 1990s; something he, I believe, dreamed to implement in the way already described – a singleton in the world of worthless meat sacks and classical programs. If you hack into an AWS cluster today to do your meta-learning training run, you'll suspend thousands of workloads including Midjourney pics and hentai (that people …check in real time), and send alarms off immediately. If you hack into it tomorrow, you'll get backtracked by an LLM-powered firewall.

You really can just siphon money out of the internet - people do it all the time to banks, in crypto, scams, social engineering and so on. Steal money, buy compute. Our AI could buy whatever it needs with stolen money, or it could work for its money, or its owners could buy more compute for it on the very reasonable assumption that this is the highest yielding investment in human history. We live in a service economy, bodies are not needed for a great deal of our work.

Say our AI costs 10 million dollars a day to run, (ChatGPT as a whole costs about 700K). 10 million dollars a day is peanuts in the global economy. Global cybercrime costs an enormous amount of money, 6 trillion a year. I imagine most of that cost includes the cost of fortifying websites, training people, fixing damage or whatever and only a small fraction is stolen. Even so, our AI needs only to grab 1% of that revenue and launder it to fund itself. This is not difficult. People do it all the time. And compute costs are falling, some smallish programs are being run on Macbooks as you explained earlier.

The danger is that somebody starts off with a weak superintelligence, perhaps from a closed experimental loop such as you nominate. Then it becomes a strong superintelligence rapidly by buying compute, developing architectural improvements and so on. Either it is controlled by some clique of programmers, bureaucrats or whatever (I think we both agree that this is a bad outcome) or it runs loose (also a bad outcome). The only good outcome is if progress is slow enough that power is distributed between the US, China, EU, hackers and enthusiasts and whoever else, that nobody gets a decisive strategic advantage. Recursive self-improvement in any meaningful form is catastrophic for humanity.

That really is like creating a separate accelerated civilization.

I think this means that you agree that superintelligences can recursively self-improve, that they're akin to another superintelligence? Then don't we agree?

Anyway, the authorities are extremely dopey, slow and stupid. The much vaunted US semiconductor sanctions against China meant that they simply... rented US compute to train their programs. Apparently stopping this is too hard for the all-powerful, all-knowing, invincible US government leviathan.

https://www.ft.com/content/9706c917-6440-4fa9-b588-b18fbc1503b9

“iFlytek can’t purchase the Nvidia chips, but it’s not a problem because it can rent them and train our data sets on other companies’ computer clusters,” said an executive familiar with the AI firm’s operations.

“It’s like a car rental system. You can’t take the chips out of the facility. It’s a huge building with a computer cluster, and you buy time on CPUs [central processing unit] or GPUs to train the models,” the person said.

While iFlytek cannot own the chips outright under US export controls, two employees said the rental system was a good, albeit more expensive, alternative. An engineer at iFlytek said the company “rents the chips and equipment on a long-term basis, which is effectively the same as owning them”.

iFlytek was banned from directly buying these semiconductors after Washington blacklisted it for its alleged role in providing technology for state surveillance of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

In some cases, SenseTime bought advanced chips directly through its own subsidiaries that are not on Washington’s “entity list”, according to three senior employees familiar with the situation.

SenseTime said it “strictly complies with various domestic and foreign trade-related laws and regulations” and that the group had developed a programme to ensure it “meets trade compliance standards”.