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Notes -
Another possible explanation is that 6 out of those 8 likely smokers didn’t pick it up because they got into vaping.
I don't think so, not on a statistical level. At least in the US, cigarette use has been declining very steadily since about 1980. Vape use was negligible before about 2010, and the decline of cigarette use doesn't seem to show any change.
(On an individual level, to everyone who is using vapes to quit or avoid cigarettes: good for you! I worry that we might not yet know all the long-term health consequences, but I'd bet that they're a hell of a lot less severe than the consequences of smoking.)
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