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I'm willing to confidently bet we won't. Do you want to put some money on this?
People can do other jobs. There is still a lot of low skilled work that GPT cannot do. People can become truck drivers, nurses, teachers, babysitters, etc.
I don't think even most office work will be eliminated, at least not without some major improvements in GPT. In many office environments, a huge amount of time is spent just communicating information. GPT could be paired with an audio interface that allows it to participate in these meetings, but in most cases, it has to be human enough that people will like talking to it. It will probably have to be able to read facial expressions and behave with realistic affect.
For mass unemployment, you need a large number of people to be unable to do any job nearly as well as an AI (even then it's not guaranteed because people will still have comparative advantages). They actually need to be so unproductive that you cannot waste other resources that they would need to be employed. The only realistic way I see this happening in the short term because of AI is if computers or electricity become obscenely expensive.
Manual labour jobs are not going to be automated by AutoGPT. Anyone with the skillset to participate in these projects could just as easily get employment in the private sector. This would have no effect on your predicted mass unemployment and would probably be extremely wasteful.
I’m interested in putting money down but would need to include things like disability and other metrics. Raw unemployment is BS in the US at least.
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