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I do not actually assume recursively improving ASI in the true sense: returns from debugging and modest data engineering seem to have a ceiling, and we're not sure about much else working. But I also don't have to assume that.
Specifically my conservative prediction is something like this: near-term (<2027) AIs based on LLMs will have the general reasoning capability of a 130-140 IQ person as assessed either by success on real-world problems not loaded on esoteric knowledge or motor/perceptual abilities, or by long-term economic productivity; all the while being significantly cheaper to employ than such a person (say, <$3/hr, or <$3/amount of inference equivalent in output to 1 hour of such a person's labor).
What I do take for granted is that we have not exhausted the already published literature, to say nothing of in-house advances. Even GPT-4 is very likely far from the bleeding edge of research. Thus, I confidently say that it'd be asinine to expect the wave of progress that has carried us from GPT-2 to GPT-4 in four years to stop right about now, on white-collar midwit level – except by political fiat.
This conservative result would still be sufficient to blast through our current economic paradigm. Imagine multiplying the population of +2-2,5SD people in the world one hundredfold, but they only work and do not consume. Almost inevitably, in a few years we'll commodify human-level autonomous robotics, and that's, well, that's endgame.
It sure will. I don't expect much finesse even from well-meaning regulators.
Well, I basically buy that OpenAI is a new Manhattan Project, so that's not my biggest concern.
I’m glad you expect progress to continue. I do as well but I’m heavily biased so I try to temper my hopes.
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