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Yes, literally one man or maybe one man and his family existing is also a scenario I find plausible. And however epsilon is the incentive to make everybody else extinct, it will always be greater than the negative incentive to keep them alive.
P.S.: in my likeliest scenario you personally are quite plausibly among those that are left, so I don't think taking anything you say at face value would do me any good.
For me it's one family or one man. Radical scenarios like this imply decisive strategic advantages and probably a nuclear war as a last throw of the dice by whoever's falling behind. Why would whoever's in first place let any of their fellow elites catch up?
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I'm curious, what does your likeliest scenario look like, particularly in terms of which people are left and which people aren't? If it's a millionfold reduction in human population, that'd mean a population of around 8,000, and I'd be surprised if anyone using this forum were one of them outside of just pure dumb luck. But I don't know the details of the mechanism to get there from here, so obviously I'm missing something.
That was not a precise number. The idea is that those who possess capital will be able to instantiate AGI and control productive output and meaningful means of violence, and those who don't possess — won't be able. The mechanism will be locking out the have nots out of the economic system entirely, giving meager hand outs until the pretext (genuinely believed! Human psyche is useful like that) to wipe them out is presented. And cimarafa is a daughter of a billionaire? Multimillionaire? Somebody who will be able to claim a share of the ownership of the post-scarcity abundance in any case.
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