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I really appreciate you mentioning O'Toole. I too have an affinity for people who are so X that even other Xs think he's annoying.
As for the transit debate: personally, all else being equal, do you prefer the user experience of trains or cars? I like cars. BUT, in reality, all things aren't equal. Of course, as you point out, the costs are different. Not only in consumer price, but environmental cost, cost per mile, etc. It's fine to focus on these things, but I think arguments about efficiency and overall cost generally overshadow the debate when other things, such as end user experience, which includes privacy, personal safety, convenience, status, comfort, etc. are, I think, more relevant to why trains are getting they ass beat in America.
You have to consider why cars are subsidized more than trains. Maybe that's what people want. Are they wrong to want it? Maybe.
I think the way forward for trains is for cars to become prohibitively expensive for most people.
A kindred spirit!
I'll be honest, I prefer trains by a lot. I grew up in the middle of nowhere where you needed a car to do anything. My family car broke down all the time and left me immobile, so for me driving only ever represented how stark the limitations on my freedom were. When I grew up and moved to the city I assumed things would be better, only to realize that almost nothing that makes me feel less free than being stuck in urban traffic.
That said, I tried as much as possible to keep my personal experiences out of it, and I don't begrudge the existence of the suburbs or anything. I think you're right that the current situation represents at least some people's preferences - O'Toole cites somewhere that large majorities of people say they want to someday live in single family houses, which is unsurprising. I think America should host all forms of urban planning as catered to different people's needs. I also think there's a balance to be walked between accommodating those different needs that isn't walked well (ie, was it reasonable for New York City to bulldoze hundreds of thousands of apartment units to build expressways for people outside of the city?).
I also think the current situation is to burdened by regulatory nudges and government intervention to really get a good look at what people's revealed preferences would look like. For instance, this paper showing that if parking minimums weren't set most businesses, trying to predict the needs of their customers, would probably build less parking than mandated (if this wasn't true, it would odd that we set minimums anyway).
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I like trains.
If I want to visit the conservatory, I can take a train and walk one kilometer. It will take me 35 minutes, door to door. If I take my car to go there, it will take about 25 minutes to drive there, plus five minutes looking for a parking spot, plus five more minutes walking from that spot to the conservatory. More or less the same time. Train tickets are cheaper than parking fees. I don't spend 50 minutes of my life maintaining the distance from the car in front of me. I could use a ridesharing service to get the best of both worlds, but that would easily quadruple the costs.
What do you do if you want to visit the conservatory in a thunderstorm?
Take an umbrella with me, leave ten minutes earlier and use a different route that lets me ride a bus instead of walking. It's not like taking the car would protect me from the rain.
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Not OP, but I think the question calls to mind the reality that all else is pretty much never held equal. In just about every situation I can think of, I'm going to be thinking about tradeoffs between cars and trains and which one I prefer will depend on the scenario. In the event that all else was equal, I would tend to say that I prefer trains though.
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