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Notes -
I will try find a source for this later on, I know it’s from the International energy Association.
In any case, the number of years left is always calculated from proven oilfields (already drilled) or from oilfields that have a 90% chance of being productive. That’s where they get the 40 years.
However 30 years ago I was told that there was 30 years left. So what happened? What happened was this - there’s a second column of known oil reserves, which are either not economically viable right now, or have less than 90% chance of being productive. These are not included in the number of years of production left because they are not certain.
Of course the chances are still pretty good and when technology changes the potential output in second column moves to the first column. There are 200 years of reserves left in this column relative to present demand.
There’s also a third column which is for reserves are not economically or technically viable right now. There’s a few hundred years of reserves there, relative to present demand.
It won’t be needed.
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