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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   38426 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 27, 2023

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That’s fair. But I also think that since the advent of the zone read, any QB that can average even say 5 YPC and 6-10 carries a game gives his offense an extra man in the run game.

With any contract, teams want to pay for future performance and I think there’s consensus Jackson’s demands are optimistic. At the same time, even if he regresses on the ground he has some room to fall before he’s no longer effective.

I think running QBs fall off much more than passing QBs because their success as a passer is a bit of a mirage. It is because of the running threat. Thus a small decrease in running effectiveness can lead to a large decrease in passing effectiveness.

I think this is true. For example, the parent listed RG3 as an example of a quarterback who could only run, not throw. This wasn't always true. In fact, RG3 holds the NFL record for the highest passer rating by a rookie. And his passer rating in college was one of the highest ever. It's only in the rear view mirror that RG3 is seen as an ineffective passer. He got injured and his career tanked.

RG3 was a better pure passer than Lamar Jackson. If Jackson loses his ability to run, his value to an NFL team will fall to zero.

I’d like to see some data and a large sample. And only looking at Jackson, his QBR has been meh the last three years while his YPC have fluctuated from 6.3 to 5.8 to 6.8.

Worth pointing out before you look at the data that QBR takes into account rushing. I was referring to passer rating which does not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

You can’t win the Super Bowl with an “effective” QB on a massive contract. You either need an elite QB on a massive contract, or you need an effective QB on a tiny contract that you can build a great team around.

Eli Manning was about as average as it gets and won two Super Bowls with large contracts. He was somewhat cheaper than contemporaries, but not much.

Of course, I wouldn't try to build a team with that pattern, but it's not necessarily a complete disaster.

No one said otherwise, above. But it’s not impossible — Peyton Manning’s 2015-16 salary was $18M (high for that year), and he was cooked in his final season. (I hope he still thanks Von Miller for that last ring).

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