Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?
This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.
Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I did my own, less nuanced but better-sourced analysis:
The CDC says there were 26031 homicides in 2021 (archive).
The FBI says that in 2019, 51.3% of people arrested for "Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter" were black (archive). If we assume that this was the same in 2021 and that the people being arrested are the same race as the people who actually committed the murder, this means that 13354 homicides were committed by blacks.
The US Census says that 13.6% of Americans in 2021 were black (archive). There were 332 million total Americans, so that's 45 million total black Americans. About half of them will be male, so that's 22.5 million black male Americans in 2021.
If we assume that every murder is committed by a different person and that black women don't commit murder, this means that there is a 13354/22.5 million=0.059% chance that any specific black male has committed a murder in 2021.
The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates that the life expectancy of a black male born in 2021 is 66.7 years (archive). If the murder rate stays constant and there are no repeat offenders, that means there is a 0.059%*66.7=3.9% chance that a black male will, in his entire life, murder someone.
3.9% is not that different from 4.5%. But the assumption that each murderer commits exactly one murder is suspect. The substack article says "the actual ratio of Victims:Murderers is near 1:1", but doesn't give any justification for this assumption, nor does it cite any evidence. I would intuitively expect this to not be true, but I also have no data on this, and it's harder to measure than any of the statistics I actually cite. Additionally, my assumption that arrest rates reflect reality may not be true. If whites are better at covering up their murders than blacks, we would be disproportionately arresting blacks for murder, which would skew my estimation. Plus, I just assumed away the possibility that women commit any murder. Overall, my number is probably an overestimate.
Finally, if you run the numbers for whites you get about 1%. If this also seems unusually high to you, consider that your priors are likely formed from the people you meet in real life. Murderers are disproportionately likely to be in prison, where you won't interact with them.
More options
Context Copy link