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I think probabilities just don't map very well onto how humans think. Nate Silver was mocked for his predictions (despite the fact that even if something is 99% likely to happen, it can still not materialize in the 1% of cases). People seem to treat 80% probability to occur as "basically guaranteed".
Strong and weak belief is better, imo.
I think it's less confusing, actually. People don't accurately use probabilities (unless they're Nate Silver), so it makes sense to just avoid the numbers altogether. Strong vs. weak captures an important threshold (namely, would someone bet money on what they say being true?)
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They sure get mad when high chance things don't happen in games. Mordheim and XCom both seem to have a fine pseudo random roll generator and shots miss even at high percentage chances. Much salt is spilled in any discussion of the games.
I feel like most people's gut is much closer to Fire Emblems' system which has does two random rolls and averages them which results in a huge reduction in lower probability things occuring (a 90 to hit misses about 2% of the time)
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