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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   3413 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for March 17, 2023

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I don't get how people think the global reserve currency is going to blow up before Japan's not global reserve currency. Japan has the equivalent of $60 trillion in government debt and their Central Bank owns 40% of that debt as well as a significant share of of the stock market.

Isn't the stupider part that the bet fundamentally favors of the one betting against hyperinflation? If he wins he gets a whopping $1M USD. If he loses he only has to pay a measly $1M USD.

It's not quite as asymmetric as "I bet humanity won't go extinct in 90 days" but it's pretty asymmetric.

The whole point is to get it into people's minds that bitcoin is a hedge against financial collapse. The chance of total banking failure in the immediate future is very much not zero. Reading the linked thread did in fact get me thinking about buying more bitcoin. If the bet goes viral it could be positive expected value for Balaji even if he loses the bet.

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