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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 27, 2023

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I am not sure I see how it follows from allowing more speech to the median reaction to trans people being to deny their identity. My impression is most people (myself included) who affirm trans people's identities do so for reasons other than fear of social censure.

One plausible mechanism I could see is that those other reasons are often downstream from forms of social censure. The social milieu I inhabit is almost exclusively people who affirm trans people's identities, out of a genuine belief that the affirmation is the right thing to do. And that genuine belief is formed in an environment in which the idea that anything other than such affirmation could be acceptable is censured harshly. As you write, media that put forth such an idea isn't in short supply, but such things only exist in this environment as objects of derision, a target of a Two Minute Hate at best. As such, I think if such censure didn't exist and people were left free to argue that sometimes affirmation might not be the only acceptable thing, then fewer people would genuinely believe that it's the only acceptable thing, and a higher proportion of people would respond with the "uh, you know that you’re still a dude, right?" instead of "please tell me your preferred pronouns so I can affirm your identity."

No idea if the numbers would shift enough to make the former the average reaction, though. Given the massive incentive for preference falsification in this subject, I'm not sure it's possible to make any meaningful estimates.