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Yes, I really think that. Artificial neural nets are really good at identifying higher-order structure from noisy, high-dimensional data. That's why they've had so much success at image-related tasks. All of these objections could just as easily be applied to the problem of identifying objects in a photograph:
A cat can look completely different depending on the context in which it's photographed. Superficially, there's little in common between a close-up photo of the head of a black cat, a tabby cat lying down, a persian cat with a lime rind on its head, a cat in silhouette sitting on a fence, etc. You're telling me you can train an AI on such a messy diversity of images and it can actually learn that these are all cats, and accurately identify cats in photos it's never seen before? But yes, this is something neural nets have been able to do for a while. And they're very good at generalizing outside the range of their training data! An AI can identify a cat wearing a superman cape, or riding a snowboard, even if these are scenarios it never encountered during training.
You answered your own question as to why a good music transcription AI doesn't exist yet. There's little money or glory in it. The time of ML engineers is very expensive. And while the training process you described sounds simple, there's probably a lot of work in building a big enough labelled training corpus, and designing the architecture for a novel task.
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