Yi Fuxian is one guy. The demographic collapse is an over played anyway.
Without much evidence we are told that China’s demographics will slow down their growth to levels lower or equal to the US. However the US also has a demographic crisis, and China can still play catch-up on a GDP per capita basis.
We’ve already seen that China has in fact slowed down from its extraordinary 10% a year to the 2010s.
Last year growth was 3% growth, the worst non covid year, but it faced the headwinds of the zero Covid policy and some American actions. Nevertheless the last Q had a rebound. They also have a persistent over valued housing market which is correcting. So I expect that the next few years will be slow but China will probably hit 4-6% again mid 20s.
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Notes -
Yi Fuxian is one guy. The demographic collapse is an over played anyway.
Without much evidence we are told that China’s demographics will slow down their growth to levels lower or equal to the US. However the US also has a demographic crisis, and China can still play catch-up on a GDP per capita basis.
We’ve already seen that China has in fact slowed down from its extraordinary 10% a year to the 2010s.
Last year growth was 3% growth, the worst non covid year, but it faced the headwinds of the zero Covid policy and some American actions. Nevertheless the last Q had a rebound. They also have a persistent over valued housing market which is correcting. So I expect that the next few years will be slow but China will probably hit 4-6% again mid 20s.
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