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Notes -
As other people have pointed out, a Russia engaged largely in their own internal political (and possibly actual) knifing each other in the back over the failures of the Ukraine invasion is a nation that's far less able to cause issues on the world stage, even if somebody to Putin's right comes to power. Because it may take a decade-plus for said new guy to centralize his power the way Putin did. After all, Putin wasn't Putin until the end of the 2000's, really.
Russia, despite it's myriad of issues, has basically zero chance of becoming a "failed state" the way say, you could argue Syria, some African countries, etc. are, because Russia is still, by global standards, fairly wealthy with a lot of resosurces. They're currently messing that up, but they can mess it up to a far larger degree and still be OK (of course, the US can mess up to about 1,000x more degrees and still be fine.)
Now, obviously, an actual civil war in Russia would be bad, but that's honestly, incredibly unlikely to happen.
The issue is more “nuclear weapon(s) fall(s) into the wrong hands in a chaotic situation.”
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