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Culture War Roundup for the week of January 30, 2023

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Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug, but no, the transcript does not suggest a timeframe of implementation after a coup, it suggests a timeframe during which Yanukovych is still in power, hence the transcript saying-

"The problem is going to be Tyahnybok [Oleh Tyahnybok, the other opposition leader] and his guys and I'm sure that's part of what [President Viktor] Yanukovych is calculating on all this."

...when talking about members who could provide for a viable inclusion into government, as opposed to people to be outside... of a government still including Yanukovych, who's involvement is still be considered later on.

"Pyatt: No, exactly. And I think we've got to do something to make it stick together because you can be pretty sure that if it does start to gain altitude, that the Russians will be working behind the scenes to try to torpedo it. And again the fact that this is out there right now, I'm still trying to figure out in my mind why Yanukovych (garbled) that. In the meantime there's a Party of Regions faction meeting going on right now and I'm sure there's a lively argument going on in that group at this point. But anyway we could land jelly side up on this one if we move fast. So let me work on Klitschko and if you can just keep... we want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing. The other issue is some kind of outreach to Yanukovych but we probably regroup on that tomorrow as we see how things start to fall into place."

This is not a discussion of a coup for the violent overthrow of government, of maneuvering fighters and identifying security forces to flip to force the government to retreat. This is discussion of the then-contemporary offer of Yanukovych to bring opposition members into the government, which was recognized at the time as a possible lure to try and sow division within the opposition ranks by encouraging infighting over access. The americans are discussing who could be viable in the government versus who should be kept out from a position of personality conflicts, but their worry is not security forces or a crackdown if exposed- it's that if a viable offer is too slow, behind-the-scenes manipulations by not-the-state-being-'couped will torpedo a formation.

Moreover, the timeframe of concern in the discussion isn't weeks forward, which in history is after the fall of government, but is in immediate context and concurrent to an undecided Party of Regions faction meeting- Yanukovych's party- where 'lively argument' reflects nonconsensus before the internal defections that came later when interior ministry started shooting in earnest. The transcript is still engaging in how Yanukovych will be continued to reached out to- not written off or replaced.