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Notes -
More of a personal opinion:
All of this just underlines that the way that we have approached NATO is very simplistic, almost thoughtless. It’s basically not an idea that we’re joining an alliance with other nations that might also have demands on us– or that might actually require Finnish soldiers to go somewhere abroad to fight in a war that doesn’t directly affect Finland. Indeed, in practice, it might be Finland that sends troops to Baltic countries to defend them against a Russian invasion, for instance.
At this point, particularly for those who have been crowing for an year about how they wanted to get to NATO all along, the membership has become an ideé fixe, something that just must be done because it must be done, damn the consequences. At the same time, at least some of the pro-NATO voices I’ve talked with in the past have been cooler with the prospect than before. After all, even if we kowtow to Turkey to get in, well – that’s just evidence that we’re so desperate that we can get extorted by whatever other countries there might be wanting some extortion. Danegeld, Dane, etc.
One could even ask if the NATO seems quite as necessary for us now as it did in February 2022. After all, the initial rush of pure fear is gone – Russia has not simply demolished the Ukrainian army as many expected and seems to be in this war for the long haul, making it doubtful whether it could pose an urgent threat to the other neighbors in the short vicinity.
Meanwhile, the Finnish defenses have been bolstered, the national morale is high, and the Ukrainian example means it’s fairly obvious that there is some commitment from the West, to oppose Russian interventions even when not against NATO countries. If the West does all it has done thus far to support Ukraine, it would seem likely it would be predisposed to also do the same things to help Finland. Though not, of course, if the weaponry stocks get depleted before this…
Beyond that, there are still the security commitments from UK and US to continue to be valid, and in some ways that’s what NATO support has meant all along for the many - basically mainly US and perhaps UK (as nuclear countries) guaranteeing that Finland will be safe forever and ever, and will also solve all of our issues for us otherwise. Not exactly the firmest of expectations, considering that American attention is fickle anyway and there have been longstanding voices calling for US to start detaching itself from Europe and concentrate on the Pacific affairs and opposing China.
The point of rushing the NATO membership application was not to be left in a security limbo, but at this very moment, the dangers of limbo seem to be exaggerated. Certainly, if Turkey puts too much trust in just being able to jerk Finland and Sweden around on a chain, she may not get what it wants. After all, what's the point of being in a military alliance if there's a country in there that considers your country negatively from the start and places on it weird and apparently arbitrary burdens that cannot be fulfilled?
After all, there’s more than one national narrative that can scarcely be understood at play. For many Finns, the world “Finlandization”, readily bandied about the willingness of the politicians to cater to Turkish interests, continues to presents a vast trauma – the idea that Finland might eternally be seen as a country that has to cower in front of some authoritarian state for security benefits is none too appealing in Finnish historical memory, whether that state is Soviet Union, modern Russia or Turkey.
(edit: now on Substack in a somewhat edited form)
One contrary point here is that previously, the majority in Finland just didn't want to be part of NATO, whereas in Ukraine the situation was more complicated. If Putin had invaded Finland in Feb 2022, I would have been equally outraged but perhaps less willing to help a country that had decided in advance it didn't want my help.
Now things have changed. Finland has applied to join NATO. If a rogue NATO member is now going to veto that for a bad reason, that's not Finland's fault. I would urge Finland not to back down on the free speech issue. This puts some pressure on Turkey.
Or just wait out the elections. Erdogan has a habit of seeking conflict with other nations in the run-up to elections.
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OTOH much of the West is a part of the EU, which is supposed to have some sort of a security dimension and where EU countries would have presumably felt obliged to support simply for that reason.
Obviously, seeing the amount of support ukraine got, if your government was still standing in the evening, you would have been swamped with help, in all likelihood boots on the ground. It sounds theatrical, and the decline-of-the-west crew doesn't want to hear it, but europeans are ready to die for finland. Our pisa average would go to shit without you.
He said 'finland didn't want to be in nato', but isn't it fair to say that can to a large extent be explained by a fear of angering russia? They didn't build a large land army because of the swedish threat.
Yes, like 90 % would be fear of Russia. Almost the whole previous debate on NATO could be summarized as "We have to join NATO because Russia is so scary" vs. "We cannot join NATO because Russia is so scary". The actual invasion rather changed the scales of that equation.
This is something that should really be expanded upon at some point related to Ukraine. One firm meme among the pro-Russian crowd is that weak and flabby Europeans are surely not willing to experience any hardships for Ukraine and will thus knuckle under even the Russian threat of cutting off gas. The idea of Europeans fighting against Russia for Ukraine (or for liberalism or democracy, or "gay pride parades in Kiev", as it is often glibly summarized) would surely be even more ridiculous.
Well, Europeans aren't (apart from individual "mercenaries", as the pro-Russians tend to call pro-Ukraine volunteers) actually fighting Russia, but the gas threat turned out to be a damp squib. If the threat of Europeans going cold moved the equation to any direction, it probably made the commitment of firm pro-Ukrainians even firmer. Furthermore, at least the idea that this could lead to a general war with European boys dying for Ukraine at least exists and has a nonzero change - but it hasn't led to any appreciably-sized peace movement, perhaps apart from some individual countries.
Looks like those gay pride parades in Kiev really are that appealing for weakling Westerners, huh?
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