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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31609 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 16, 2023

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It reminds me of the flawed 'domino theory'

This invasion is the third domino after Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. What is there to doubt?

Excuse me for the potentially physics-ignorant analogy, but dominoes work because the potential energy released by a domino falling is greater than the force required to knock a domino over.

In the age of industrial warfare, the windfall Russia will get from a complete annexation of Ukraine (if that's even on the table?) is lower than the costs required to conquer it — maybe it will pay off on the timescale of decades but I doubt it. This is probably true even if the US and EU weren't doing their best to make Ukraine into sandpaper.

"Actor did A, then B, then C" is different from "Actor did A which empowered them to do B which empowered them to do C".

In the age of industrial warfare, the windfall Russia will get from a complete annexation of Ukraine (if that's even on the table?) is lower than the costs required to conquer it

This is evident now, due to a not-insignificant amount of effort on everyone's parts.

But, arguably, this wasn't the case with Crimea. If it was then the most that can be said is that Putin had goals that weren't purely economical, which doesn't mean they're irrelevant.

Could a disaster at Crimea have prevented this? Mayhaps.

Also: we don't know if Russia intended a full annexation of Ukraine or some sort of puppet government + demilitarization + seizing the most Russia-friendly regions and cutting it down to size. A more "realistic" goal.

The domino theory was not that A empowers the actor to attempt B. It is it emboldens the actor to attempt B.

The domino theory was not that A empowers the actor to attempt B. It is it emboldens the actor to attempt B.

This is a textbook motte and bailey.

Perhaps YOU, @Gdanning, are scrupulously consistent in every discussion you've ever had that Domino Theory describes emboldening only, but many/most proponents of the theory are not.

I don't think you understand what "motte and bailey" means. My definition, it requires a person to make two arguments, the first bold and the second much less so, and the second being advanced in response to criticism of the first. I have made only one.

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