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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31609 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 16, 2023

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Russia had continuously been getting involved into larger and larger wars and territorial conquests. If Ukraine wasn’t fought over then tomorrow it’s Estonia. The domino theory actually was occurring with Russia.

Poland’s probably too strong today for Russia to war but if Russia had the ability to take Poland I would have little doubt that Putin would choose that after taking Ukraine.

Poland’s probably too strong today for Russia to war but if Russia had the ability to take Poland I would have little doubt that Putin would choose that after taking Ukraine.

Conquering and occupying a country of 40 million people who aren't inbred idiots, in this day and age ?

Look how well that worked out in Iraq - whose resistance movements had no great supporters abroad.

It's as inane as that time when BAP got drunk and suggested if Russian army wanted it they could be in Berlin in three weeks.

I don't necessarily think Estonia would have been next considering its explicitly under the American nuclear umbrella, but a place like Finland could have been plausible, especially if Ukraine went smoothly to free up the Russian army to deal with Finland before it could join the alliance.

My guess would have been Ukraine -> Moldova -> Finland.

There's a classic imperial overstretch dynamic that Russia has had since 2008. Beating up Georgia seemed fun at the time, but it soured relations with Ukraine and indicated to pro-Western Ukrainians that they needed NATO membership if they wanted to be securely in power without the threat of a Russian invasion/insurgency.

A quick win over Ukraine would have created a massive crisis for Moldova. If the Moldovan policy response had been to move closer to NATO, that could have resulted in another Russian invasion.

Then, with Finland planning to join NATO, why not reunite the Karelian people?

It's the same dynamic that has been the bane of many empires. It can be managed by sometimes accepting humiliations, e.g. the US withdrawal from Afghanistan was humilitating but good for the US's long term interests.

Oh yeah, I completely forgot about Moldova. They almost certainly could have been next, given the situation in Transnistria and the fact that a decent chunk of the population is relatively pro-Russian.

I don't see how Russia ever would've been bold enough to attack Finland. Not only are there practically zero Russians in Finland, the country is thoroughly ensconced within western Europe culturally (even if not militarily/diplomatically). The international sympathy it would draw if it were the victim of Russian aggression would dwarf that of Ukraine. Also it has a very competent military, and a state that is vastly more coherent and capable.

I think you significantly over-estimate how much the international system cares about northern europe. There is certainly an argument that Western Europe would have cared far more, but this would have been far more due to the dynamics of Finland being a European Union member but not a NATO member. Were Germany and France unwilling to help a non-NATO EU member- or worse, try but fail- all pretense of strategic autonomy from the US in favor of the EU would have been shattered.

It's hard to say how such a campaign would have gone- 'how' the Russians have a hypothetical win in Ukraine to embolden/allow them to try such a thing matters- but for all the very real good things that can be said about Finland, it remains a country of less than 6 million, compared to Ukraine's 40 million, with only one strategically relevant invasion corridor along the south. A much greater size disparity, in a much smaller space where Russian artillery really could pay to its strengths, in the midst of a regional crisis as the European interests disagree over how to relate to Russia after a dominant success in Ukraine...

Too many variables to make a strong claim, but 'the international community would not stand for it!' isn't one I'd bet on.

I agree that a Russian attack would be very unlikely, unless circumstances were to change a lot. However, it would be more likely given Russian successes in Ukraine and Moldova.

Russian intervention in Ukraine was also linked to its successful intervention in Georgia in 2008, via at least two ways:

(1) The success of the annexation of Georgian territory bolstered Putin's confidence in such interventions.

(2) The breaking of the post-USSR acceptance of SSR borders by Russia gave a reason for Ukrainians to fear the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas. Of course, the Georgia-Russia war was also a reason for non-Pro Russia Ukrainians to fear an attack if they got into power.

(1) The success of the annexation of Georgian territory

Now that again, but slowly.

The success of the annexation of Georgian territory

Sure: The success of the annexation of Georgian territory (the country, not the US state).

Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke from Georgia in 1990-1992 when Putin was insignificant.

Russian forces stay here but these regions are not incorporated into Russia, that's what annexation means, Abkhazia apparently would consider armed resistance if Russia tries to annex it.

Ok, if you prefer, the Russian recognition of South Ossetian independence and the successful ethnic cleansing of Georgians in South Ossetia by a Russian client statelet, ending any hopes of it becoming reintegrated into Georgia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_cleansing_of_Georgians_in_South_Ossetia

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