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It's unlikely that Russia is in a position, economically or militarily, to occupy all of Ukraine. Russia is also in steep demographic decline and the population seems to have little stomach for sacrifice, which is presumably why Putin is only spending about 5% of Russian GDP on this war. Russia needs a guerilla war in Ukraine like it needs a Third, Fourth, and Fifth Chechen War.
Their best-case scenario (which I suspect is their current strategic aim) is to occupy the areas that they have claimed so far, ethnically cleanse most of the Ukrainian population in these areas as they have begun to do (taking children to Russia and giving them to Russian families) and to hope for a gradual rapproachment with the West, just as happened over the annexation of the Baltic States. For example, that could happen if Russia implicitly or explicitly sided with the US in a conflict with China, just as Western mollification over the annexation of the Baltic States was eased by the USSR inadvertently ending up in the war against the Nazis.
The annexation would never be recognised in the West, but it would eventually cease to be an issue that inhibits Russian trade, finance, diplomacy etc.
However, it's worth noting that that analyst is adopting a "broken clock" strategy towards predicting a Russian victory. I see no reason to take them particularly seriously.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukrainian-war
Yes, I agree with you. As noted in my OP, however, my intention was not primarily to handicap the war so much as to question the importance of this conflict and of Ukraine more generally. There's a whiff of existential crisis in the coverage of the war, which is frankly absurd if you take a step back and look at the stakes rationally. A potential loss in Ukraine for NATO isn't going to end the West just as defeats in Vietnam or Afghanistan didn't.
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