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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32255 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 2, 2023

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I think the problem is that there are risks of both false positives and false negatives, and there is generally a tradeoff re reducing one versus reducing the other. When you say that the added specificity might move people further from a specific suspect, I take that to mean that it increases the risk of a false negative. But the added specificity decreases the risk of a false positive.

There is also the practical issue of which is more likely to prompt citizens to report their suspicions to police. "The suspect is a black male" reduced the risk of a false negative, but it is useless if it does not result in reports from citizens. That description applies to my doorman, but it is not going to cause me to report his as a potential suspect. A more specific description might, however.

I agree that it is a good research topic, though, perhaps using the analytic tool advocated here

Gotta say, you've changed my mind on this one. thanks much.

YW but to be clear, you might be correct. A more specific description is going to lead to more false negatives, so there might be circumstances in which providing a more specific description might be a bad idea, depending on how important it is to avoid false negatives (eg maybe when hunting a terrorist with a nuke)

To be clear, you've changed my mind from "this is clearly pseudoscience" to "it's possible this could be a net positive, more research needed."

Ah, gotcha

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