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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31958 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 5, 2022

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A key difference between these situations is that there's no corroborating evidence for Cassidy's claim. It's not the case that the Presidential limo was seen suddenly swerving on camera, and Cassidy's claim is an explanation for what happened.

In the case of the Bidens, we have the email where Hunter is to hold 10% for "the big guy" and Bobulinski is explaining who the big guy is. We also, as far as I know, have no alternative theory on who "the big guy" is. Who else is in Hunter's orbit is a good candidate for "the big guy?"

A key difference between these situations is that there's no corroborating evidence for Cassidy's claim.

Another key difference is simply "likelihood."

How likely is it that someone in the backseat of a large car might lunge for the steering wheel? It seems unlikely to me that someone in the backseat of a Volkswagen Rabbit would be able to make any serious play for a steering wheel, let along someone in a more spacious luxury SUV or limo or whatever. Even before you get into the political alliances, this sounds like a made-up story.

Again, removing political alliances, how likely is that a powerful politician is profiting in some way off of the connections he makes for his family members? Moderate to very likely?

Whether there is evidence of either, of course, weakens or strengthens the case. But purely in a "Could I see this happening?" model, one seems physically difficult, at best, while the other seems like the way things usually work.

If I remember correctly, it was said Trump lunged for the wheel of The Beast, but he was on video being driven in an SUV that day, which would be a huge counterfactual.

To be fair Cassidy's claim was that someone (Tony Ornato) told her someone told him he saw someone do something. The only thing that is reliant on her credibility is the "someone told her" part of the chain. Ornato seems to have met with J6 committee and may be testifying soon, so he would be someone that can refute Cassidy's claims.

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