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Thanks for the detailed breakdown! I'm still not seeing where the sense of "getting in trouble" is coming from in your explanation though.
It's coming from the "до" part. Literally, this prefix implies arrival to a destination (like доехать = to arrive from до + ехать to go or to drive). However, when used with words that do not mean literal movement, especially when combined with the reflexive suffix ся, this prefix often means "there would be bad consequences if you keep doing this" - e.g. доиграешься (от играть - to play) means if you keep playing like that (or in general, acting like that) something bad will happen (the implication is it will happen to you, though you can also say it meaning it would happen to somebody else, but still will be your fault).
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