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ZorbaTHut  2yr ago (text post)   45552 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022

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I do think we are in danger of overestimating the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Yes they have had initial success, but so did the Germans at the Bastogne. I think by the end of the week it will be more clear.

Bastogne was a disaster for the Germans because not only did their offensive fail, but the western allies had mobile armies able to exploit the defeat to advance. The Ukrainian offensive in the north has succeeded as well as it has precisely because the Russians lacked reserves to contest with a counter-offensive, while in the South the issue is that the Russian ability to advance across the river was limited by bridges in Ukrainian artillery range. If the Ukrainians over-extend in the north, they stop advancing and keep considerable gains. If the Ukrainians overextend to the south, they... still have the bridgeheads in artillery range.

What, exactly, do you think the worst case of over-extension is supposed to be?

A loss in manpower, equipment, and morale.

Yes? And? What else? That's not exactly a worst-case scenario you're describing.

Manpower and equipment are already being lost even in a successful advance- either the categorical loss of something is bad enough to matter, or you need relevant context of what sort of losses are unacceptable. You could make an argument about moral, but you're not comparing it to anything else. Is this supposed to be lower than if there were no over-extended offensive in the first place? What difference is this supposed to make that warrants a comparison to the Germans at Bastogne?

If morale is the only categorical negative , we can just point at Ukrainian propaganda, say it raises morale, and call it net even.

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