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In theory, I agree that hierarchical top-down control propagates signals better. As for practice, I can provide examples from the Soviet history, which illustrate the following problems:
Signal from the top might be initially poor (unrealistic), and all subordinate levels would have to cope with it
Interest groups and factions, which you acknowledged, erode control and create corruption. Democracy has those too, but I’d argue it has less overall corruption due to formal influence channels, like lobbying, donation campaigns, etc. Hidden corruption in autocracy might remain unaccountable for a long time.
Struggle between US parties is more transparent, with a lot of stuff exposed by journalists. Publicity reduces space for maneuver (you can’t make things up randomly or keep denying everything). In autocracy outcomes of conflicts often depend on personal connections and ability to maneuver; there is no way for outsiders (even within same circle) to get the signal, as the eventual purge would be advertised as generic treason or whatever
American failures are more exposed, but whether they are more numerous/deleterious is a purely empirical question. I’d be glad to know evidence on China.
Agreed. My point is that China and US are facing different slopes of the same S-curve at the moment (economically, and historically, as you noted), so direct comparison of growth rates is not meaningful.
Well there are natural problems in measuring inherently obscured phenomena in corruption.
If we compare public infrastructure, China crushes the US. They actually finished their HSR program and it is creating an 8% return according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, California's HSR has yet to begin operation, while costs balloon.
If we compare military research, US officials worry that Chinese procurement is much more efficient: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-acquiring-new-weapons-five-times-faster-than-u-s-warns-top-official
If we compare quantitative military procurement, China builds a mid-sized European navy every 18 months. The US Navy is actually shrinking as they decommission recently purchased warships like the Littoral Combat Ships along with relics from the 90s or earlier.
As far as I can see, all the US's strengths seem to be concentrated in the private sector. SpaceX rocketry and Starlink open up novel capabilities for the US. Microsoft, Facebook and so on are leading the world in AI. Intel and AMD are very good at designing chips. But these advantages are what you'd expect from a very large, advanced economy. They don't indicate that the government is excellent, only that it isn't Soviet-tier in worsening development. If the government was capable, they'd be building huge numbers of nuclear plants (like China is), developing infrastructure, creating an effective healthcare system (China's life expectancy just surpassed the US), fighting drugs and reducing violent crime. The US is well behind China in these fields despite being richer. Thus I conclude that China has a more capable government.
I also don't see why publicity and journalists mean you can't make things up. Certain elements of the US political-media-intelligence establishment made up a Trump-Russia collusion story that spread around the world: https://nypost.com/2022/05/23/fbi-told-agents-trump-russia-data-source-was-from-doj-not-clinton-tied-lawyer/
A different bunch of the same sort made up Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq and used it to start a pointless war. While China does disappear people from public attention or conceal various incidents like Tiananmen, that seems to be a much more natural thing to do than accusing the President of working for a foreign power or invading random countries. That doesn't enhance national strength.
Thanks for evidence, that's interesting. I know very little about China to comment. Soviet Union was 3rd fastest growing economy in 1928-1970 (however, as this article shows, choosing time window changes picture a lot), and its military complex was relatively efficient too. W/t Gorbachev I believe it could have grown further, albeit slowly. Drawing parallels in how US was taking stock of SU, it seems they usually overestimated the threat and were misled by gross numbers and lack of official data. Some of this obsession with net output seems to hold for China, judging by retracted papers (1) (2). I need better stats, but most Chinese patents were filed in Chinese patent office, which might imply the same issues with quality, despite clearly superior number of applications.
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