Humans, even rationalists, have to make decisions without the time to obtain perfect knowledge.
Yes, sometimes, but a lot of times they don't have to make a decision, and they do anyway. For example if I enter a meeting I will want to sit down, I don't know if the chair isn't broken, but I sit down anyway. Is not checking the chair a mistake? No, I can make a decision without perfect knowledge. But what about a raffle? I also don't know that I'm going to lose, so it might make sense to buy a ticket, but I don't have to. You'll say that I made a decision anyway, but not necessarily, a lot of times the result is "I don't know", and that's not really a decision.
It's only prudent to place bets if you think the upside might be big and the downside small.
That depends on the odds. A small upside and big downside might make sense if the odds of losing are sufficiently small.
In other words, there were probably rationalists in the OP's sample that donated/took money from SBF while thinking this is all likely going to blow up in their face.
But those are two different things. Taking money from a person is one decision, trusting that person is a completely different one. You can take money from a person without trusting them.
The difference between skeptics and normal people is not readily apparent. We both sit on a chair without checking if it's broken, but I as a rational skeptic do not assume it is unbroken. The end result looks the same, but the mental model is different: I do not have a belief.
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Notes -
Yes, sometimes, but a lot of times they don't have to make a decision, and they do anyway. For example if I enter a meeting I will want to sit down, I don't know if the chair isn't broken, but I sit down anyway. Is not checking the chair a mistake? No, I can make a decision without perfect knowledge. But what about a raffle? I also don't know that I'm going to lose, so it might make sense to buy a ticket, but I don't have to. You'll say that I made a decision anyway, but not necessarily, a lot of times the result is "I don't know", and that's not really a decision.
That depends on the odds. A small upside and big downside might make sense if the odds of losing are sufficiently small.
But those are two different things. Taking money from a person is one decision, trusting that person is a completely different one. You can take money from a person without trusting them.
The difference between skeptics and normal people is not readily apparent. We both sit on a chair without checking if it's broken, but I as a rational skeptic do not assume it is unbroken. The end result looks the same, but the mental model is different: I do not have a belief.
And yet you assume you have access to other people's mental models.
No, I ask them what they believe, and they tell me.
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