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Notes -
One thing about the lockdowns was that they were always supposed to be temporary. Yes, the temporariness was stretched for a far longer period than originally intended, as mocked with endless "two more weeks to stop the spread" memery, but still, the official line at every point was that this was a temporary period of exception and at some point things would return to, if not the previous normal then at least something resembling normalcy. OTOH with these tariffs Trump's communications indicate that they're meant to last in some form for as long as Trumpism stays in power with even no-deficit countries getting a basic 10% rate.
The markets are still priced like they expect some capitulation from Trump eventually. The alternative is still unthinkable.
Was just thinking yesterday that the one partial saving grace for Trump admin vis-a-vis the market reaction is precisely that all of this is so retarded; if it was just a smidgen less retarded then there would be a greater chance that the markets would price the possibility that he's for real, but this is retarded enough that it becomes easier for this to think that this level of retardation can't possibly continue for long.
There is a point at which enough GOP reps vote with 2/3 majority in the house to reassert power over tariffs in a veto-proof way, but I do think it’s further away than the markets seem to think.
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